East Africa refers to the region 5°N to 15°S and east of 30°E, mainly incorporating the countries Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi and parts of Zambia and Mozambique. Rainfall occurs in two wet seasons - in March to May and October to December. Our forecast is for the latter period. Forecasts of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years.
Issued October 2016
Last updated: 21 October 2016