East African rainfall

East Africa refers to the region 5°N to 15°S and east of 30°E, mainly incorporating the countries Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi and parts of Zambia and Mozambique. Rainfall occurs in two wet seasons - in March to May and October to December. Our forecast is for the latter period. Forecasts of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years.

Important

  • Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts for the next few days
  • Forecasts show the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes
  • The most likely outcome in the forecast will not always happen
  • Forecasts are for average conditions over a wide region and time period
  • For more details on interpretation, see How to use our long-range predictions

Forecast

The forecast for the October to December 2014 season is that a near average or slightly drier than average season is likely for most of the region; for more details see   East Africa Rainfall forecast for OND 2014 season our latest forecast (PDF, 747 kB) .

Verification

The forecast for the October-December 2013 was for rainfall to be near or slightly drier than average. The observed rainfall was in the 'average' category. For a detailed look at the 2013 prediction, see  Forecast of OND2013 East African rainfall the forecast for October-December 2013 (PDF, 546 kB)

Verification of 2013  and previous years forecasts can be viewed in  East Africa Rainfall forecast for OND 2014 season the forecast document for the 2014 season (PDF, 747 kB) .

Last updated: 17 November 2014