East Africa refers to the region 5°N to 15°S and east of 30°E, mainly incorporating the countries Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi and parts of Zambia and Mozambique. Rainfall occurs in two wet seasons - in March to May and October to December. Our forecast is for the latter period. Forecasts of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years.
The forecast for the October to December 2013 season is that a near average or slightly drier than average season is likely for most of the region; for more details see our latest forecast (PDF, 546 kB) .
The forecast for the October-December 2012 was for rainfall in the 'wet' category. The observed rainfall was in the 'wet' category. For a detailed look at the 2012 prediction, see East Africa OND 2012 forecast (PDF, 447 kB) .
The table below compares observed outcomes with our past forecasts. Overall, the correlation between the predicted and observed category is 0.56, which is significantly skilful at the 95% level of statistical confidence.
|Year||Forecast category||Observed category|
|1998||Dry or Average||Very Dry|
|2001||Dry or very Dry||Very Dry|
|2008||Dry or Average||Dry|
|2009||Wet or Average||Wet|
Last updated: 7 October 2013