North-east Brazil rainfall

Forecasts are produced for the north-east part of Brazil between 0° S to 10° S and east of 50° W. The wet season is between February and May with considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. The forecasts are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions and include predictions of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry). Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years. A long-lead forecast is normally issued in December and a final forecast is issued in February for March to May.


  • Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts for the next few days
  • Forecasts show the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes
  • The most likely outcome in the forecast will not always happen
  • Forecasts are for average conditions over a wide region and time period
  • For more details on interpretation, see How to use our long-range predictions


Our first forecast for the 2015 north-east Brazil wet season favours near- or below-average rainfall over above-average rainfall. For detailed information, see  NE Brazil forecast for FMAM 2015 our forecast (PDF, 325 kB)  .

Verification of 2014 forecast

Our  NE Brazil Long Lead Forecast FMAM 2014 forecast for February-May 2014 (PDF, 218 kB) favoured above-average rainfall. Above-average rainfall has been observed, consistent with the forecast. 

Last updated: 28 January 2015