Forecasts are produced for the north-east part of Brazil between 0° S to 10° S and east of 50° W. The wet season is between February and May with considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. The forecasts are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions and include predictions of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry). Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years. A long-lead forecast is normally issued in December and an updated forecast is issued in February for March to May.
Our updated forecast for the March-May 2016 season favours well below average rainfall for most of the region. For detailed information, see Updated forecast for MAM 2016 (PDF, 591 kB) .
Last updated: 22 April 2016