Forecasts are produced for the north-east part of Brazil between 0° S to 10° S and east of 50° W. The wet season is between February and May with considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. The forecasts are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions and include predictions of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry). Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years. A long-lead forecast is normally issued in December and a final forecast is issued in February for March to May.
Our first forecast for the 2015 north-east Brazil wet season favours near- or below-average rainfall over above-average rainfall. For detailed information, see our forecast (PDF, 325 kB) .
Verification of 2014 forecast
Our forecast for February-May 2014 (PDF, 218 kB) favoured above-average rainfall. Above-average rainfall has been observed, consistent with the forecast.
Last updated: 28 January 2015