Prof. Adam Scaife

Adam leads monthly to decadal prediction research while carrying out personal research on climate variability. He recently led the development of the Hadley Centre high resolution climate model HadGEM3-H.

Current activities

Adam is head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction which includes monthly to seasonal forecasting, decadal forecasting and modelling climate variability. These groups produce ensembles of climate predictions and carry out research to improve the forecasts for adaptation to climate variability and change.

Adam led a recent project developing our new high-resolution climate model HadGEM3-H with other researchers from UK Universities and the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Adam's personal research is focused on climate variability. He has published more than 70 peer reviewed articles on mechanisms of climate variability and their simulation in physically based climate models. His research group recently made an important breakthrough in seasonal forecasting for winter.

Career background

Adam became head of the Monthly to Decadal Prediction Group in 2008 after spending five years leading a smaller team of scientists investigating climate variability. Adam has over 20 years experience in climate modelling. His recent studies help to clarify what caused changes in European climate from cold blocked winters in the 1960s to the mild wet winters of the 1990s, as well as year-to-year effects from El Niño, stratosphere-troposphere interaction and other sources of predictability.

Adam simulated the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation using parameterised gravity waves for the first time in a climate model and his work has reduced some of the major errors in climate model simulations of the atmosphere - for example in reducing the errors in atmospheric 'blocking'. He also demonstrated with colleagues that the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the associated mass transfer across the tropopause is expected to increase under climate change. Adam was recently awarded the Lloyd's of London Science of Risk Research Prize in the Climate Change category.

External recognition

Last updated: 4 April 2014

About Adam Scaife

Adam Scaife

Adam leads seasonal to decadal prediction research.

Areas of expertise:

  • Climate variability and change from years to decades.

  • Global circulation, stratosphere-troposphere interaction.

  • Global teleconnections focusing on Europe.

  • Atmospheric waves and wave-mean flow interaction.

  • Climate model development.

My Publications - Scaife, A