Fraser works on the detection and attribution of climate change, and has a background in infrared remote sensing.
Areas of expertise:
Detection and attribution
Infrared remote sensing
Fraser works on Detection and Attribution of climate change, using statistical techniques to compare weather and climate data from the last 150 years to that seen in computer models. By using models with a range of forcings, both man-made and natural, we can estimate how much of the change we see in the real world is due to which forcing.
Fraser has recently been applying these techniques to the regional climates of Africa on behalf of the Department for International Development. By examining the overlap between "actual world" and "natural world" probability distributions for events such as droughts, the increase in the chance of that event due to human activity can be determined. This can then be used to help future climate adaptation.
Fraser studied for a Physics MSci and a Plasma Physics PhD from Imperial College London. The latter involved experiments using infrared measurements of temperatures and power fluxes from the MAST fusion experiment at Culham Science Centre, and he went on to do similar work on ITER mock-ups for CEA Cadarache in 2007-8.
Fraser joined the Met Office in 2009 to work on the HadIR project, an effort to collate 30 years of infrared satellite data into a climate dataset. He worked on the implementation and comparison of cloud detection algorithms to develop this project and evaluate its potential. He continues to oversee the Climetop archive of satellite data.
Fraser moved into the field of Detection and Attribution at the beginning of 2010.
Best Poster Prize for a young researcher at the Plasma Surface Interactions conference, Toledo 2008.