Jeff works on developing understanding and modelling of the key physical mechanisms in seasonal and decadal prediction.
Jeff leads a team of scientists to develop better seasonal and decadal predictions through scientific understanding of the mechanisms of climate variability. This understanding comes from the published literature and our own original research. Current research topics include investigating the mechanisms by which solar variability influences Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation and the role of soil moisture in modifying seasonal drought forecasts, amongst others.
In addition, the team is responsible for investigating and testing methods of initialisation for seasonal and decadal forecasts. One aim of this project is to produce a decadal forecast system based on the new Met Office Hadley Centre global circulation model HadGEM3. Another is to see if it is possible to produce a seamless seasonal to decadal forecast system.
Jeff has a personal interest in comparing model simulations of North Atlantic Ocean variability. This is aimed at understanding why there is a range of timescales and mechanisms in models, and might lead to the ability to robustly simulate the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) - a major mode of variability of the climate system.
Jeff became leader of the Climate Variability Modelling team in 2009 after a number of years as a climate variability research scientist. Jeff has over 15 years' experience in atmospheric physics and climate science. His recent work using models and observations has demonstrated the likelihood of the AMO being a long-lived mode of internal climate variability with a wide range of climatic impacts, offering hope for better decadal predictions. Jeff has also contributed to better understanding of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic-European region in summer and winter.