Ken Mylne

Ken leads the Numerical Modelling section within Weather Science.

Current activities

Ken leads the Numerical Modelling section which is responsible for delivering the operational high resolution models used in weather forecasting, for post-processing model output to produce automated forecasts of weather and its impact, and for verification of models and forecasts. Ken's background has been in leading the development and application of MOGREPS, and his aim is to develop an integrated probabilistic forecast system for automated prediction of weather and its impact.

The Numerical Modelling section is divided into six teams:

  • Mesoscale Model Development - delivers the high resolution models for operational use
  • Gridded Post-Processing - delivers seamless forecasts from 1 hour to 2 weeks ahead in gridded datasets spanning the UK and the globe
  • Site-Specific Post-Processing - delivers automated calibrated weather forecasts for tens of thousands of locations across the UK and the World as the core basis of Met Office forecast services
  • Verification Diagnostics and Methods - develops tools and methods for assessing the quality of forecasts and diagnosing performance of forecast models and systems
  • Operational Verification - provides regularly updated verification of operational models and forecast services for customers and to support Met Office Business Performance Measures
  • Weather Impacts - conducts research into the modelling of the impact of the weather on society and develops tools for forecasting weather impact

Ken is Chair of the Data Processing and Forecasting System section of the World Meteorological Organization. In this role he also chairs the Steering Group of the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects to build capacity for prediction of hazardous weather in less-developed countries.

Career background

From 1999 to 2011 Ken managed the Met Office's ensemble forecasting team, which followed six years working as an operational forecaster in the Met Office's Operations Centre.

During this time he led the development of the short-range MOGREPS ensemble system, the applications of ensembles and their integration into the Met Office's core operational forecasting procedures. Key aspects of this work were the communication of uncertainty to users of weather forecasts, and how the uncertainty in the weather forecast translates into uncertainty in the impact of the weather. In 2012-13 he led the creation of a new team to conduct research and development in weather impact prediction before promotion to his current role in May 2013.

Before this, Ken joined the Met Office in 1984 with a degree in Physics from Oxford University. His first seven years were spent conducting experimental research on the dispersion of pollution in the turbulent boundary layer, pioneering measurements of the rapid fluctuations of pollutant concentration within a dispersing plume.

External recognition

  • Ken was awarded the L. G. Groves Memorial Award for Meteorology in 2007.

Last updated: 8 April 2014

About Ken Mylne

Ken Mylne

Ken leads the Numerical Modelling section.

Areas of expertise

  • Operational high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction
  • Ensemble forecasting and applications
  • Severe and high-impact weather prediction
  • Weather impact modelling
  • Communication of uncertainty in forecasts
  • Weather-related risk management

Publications by Ken Mylne