Robert Neal

Robert develops post-processing systems and products for high impact weather.

Current activities

Robert works with NWP data covering forecast ranges from one to 15 days. The current focus of work is on the societal risk from the impact of weather, of which probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble prediction systems is a key tool. Current activities include:

  • Development of a weather regime forecast tool which assigns ensemble members to a closest matching regime type. This allows forecasters to identify which weather type or types are most likely within the forecast range. Future work will look to relate a range of severe weather impacts to regime type.
  • Development of a risk-based probabilistic first-guess early warning system for severe weather to support the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This system presents ensemble information to forecasters in a user-friendly format which mimics the NSWWS colour states, taking account of the expected impact of weather as well as likelihood.
  • Verification and calibration of area-based probabilistic first-guess early warnings of severe weather.
  • Development of ensemble multi-model products using both MOGREPS and ECMWF data.
  • Routine maintenance and upgrades to Met Office ensemble post-processing systems.

Career background

Robert joined the Met Office in October 2008 after completing a BSc in Geography and MSc in Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the University of Birmingham. Robert's first post at the Met Office was in the Ensemble Forecasting Applications Group, before moving to the Weather Impacts Group in July 2012.

Last updated: 8 April 2014

About Robert Neal

Robert Neal

Robert develops post-processing systems and products for high impact weather.

Areas of expertise

  • Post-processing of gridded ensemble outputs for high impact weather.
  • Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts.
  • Probabilistic weather forecasts.
  • Risk based forecasts (combining probability and impact).

Publications by Robert Neal