UK Climate Projections

UK climate projections

UK Climate Projections is a climate analysis tool, funded by Defra, which features the most comprehensive climate projections ever produced.

Building on the success of UK Climate Projections 2009, a new project, called UKCP18, is set to deliver a major upgrade to the range of UK climate projection tools designed to help decision-makers assess their risk exposure to climate. The new projections will be an important source of information for the UK and will build on the currently available UKCP09 suite of information and services.

UKCP18 will deliver improvements to the existing projections which currently consist of guidance material, graphical displays of potential future climate change and datasets that users can utilise for their own purposes. Importantly, it will continue to provide a range of possible future conditions rather than just a best estimate, allowing users to make decisions according to their preferred level of resilience to future changes and make informed choices about adaptation.

There have been many updates to increase the usefulness of the dataset since the original launch and a recent study found UKCP09 remains a vital source for informing UK adaptation. However, recent advances in climate science and the ability of supercomputers to run more and better climate simulations, combined with an evolving user requirement, mean it is now time to begin the process of enhancing UKCP09.

Over the next several years we will introduce updated projections, looking ahead to future decades. We will continue to focus on the range of potential climate outcomes from the best available climate models whilst prioritising user engagement to ensure outputs are directly relevant to their needs. There will also be more focus on how natural variations combine with the long-term climate trend to produce future extreme weather.

Regular updates on progress will be available as the project continues. Please send us an email if you would like to be notified of UKCP18 project developments.

Last updated: 6 April 2016