Weather and climate change

Headline:

Thunderstorms clearing tonight, but more rain arriving for tomorrow.

This Evening and Tonight:

Thundery showers will ease across all but parts of eastern Scotland overnight. Otherwise there will be some clear spells with areas of low cloud and some fog patches. Rain arriving across the far southwest by dawn. A mild night everywhere.

Monday:

Most northern and eastern areas will be fine with some warm sunshine. A few showers are expected across Scotland. Meanwhile, persistent rain feeding across Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Rain across the north and east easing on Tuesday. Otherwise a mix of sunny spells and showers across the UK, the showers locally heavy and thundery. Warm in the sunshine.

Updated: 17:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 May 2024

Changeable with showers developing by day across the UK through the end of the week and over the weekend. The heaviest showers and greatest risk of thunderstorms across southern parts. Temperatures generally around or just a little above average, though with winds tending to be light, still feeling warm in sunnier areas. Over the weekend there are signs that showers may start to ease from the north with drier, more settled conditions probably becoming established for a time. Confidence lowers into the following week with signals unclear how prolonged the influence of higher pressure will be. So after a potentially more settled spell of weather, unsettled conditions are likely to return during the week with the wettest conditions in the west. Above average temperatures more likely than below.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 May 2024

Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 May 2024