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Extended Outlook

Extended outlook forecast

Issued: 2157 on Tue 21 Oct 2014 UTC

Issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency

Valid from 2200 on Thu 23 Oct 2014 UTC until 2200 on Sun 26 Oct 2014 UTC

Cullercoats

A large low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland late on Thursday, with this feature having multiple centres, the deepest with central pressure near 975. The main low is expected to maintain its position over Iceland as it deepens rapidly to near 960 on Saturday, maintaining this depth through Sunday. This main low feature will be cast in opposition to an intense high near the Baltic States throughout, with the high intensifying from 1035 to near 1045 through the period. Strong winds are expected all areas late Thursday, with gales developing north of 58 North for a time into Friday morning. Occasional strong winds are then expected in all areas through Friday and at first Saturday, before gales develop in the northwest later Saturday. Winds are likely to increase to severe gale north of 55 North later Sunday, perhaps storm for a time north of 58 North, gradating to strong winds in the south of Cullercoats

Niton

A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland late on Thursday, with this feature having multiple centres, the deepest with central pressure near 975. The main low is expected to maintain its position over Iceland as it deepens rapidly to near 960 on Saturday, maintaining this depth through Sunday. This main low feature will be cast in opposition to the Azores high throughout, with this main high declining from 1030 to nearer 1025 by late Sunday. Occasional strong winds are expected in all areas save Biscay and Fitzroy through the period, with these areas south of 48 North seeing no hazardous winds. Strong winds are likely to become more sustained late Friday, with gales possible in Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea and Shannon on Saturday, perhaps then severe gales in Shannon on Sunday

Portpatrick

A large low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland late on Thursday, with this feature having multiple centres, the deepest with central pressure near 975. The main low is expected to maintain its position over Iceland as it deepens rapidly to near 960 on Saturday, maintaining this depth through Sunday. This main low feature will be cast in opposition to an intense high near the Baltic States throughout, with the high intensifying from 1035 to near 1045 through the period. All areas will see strong winds through the period, although they will periodically fall light in Southeast Iceland. Gales are possible for a time north of 55 North late Thursday and Friday, becoming more sustained and periodically affecting all Portpatrick areas through Saturday, with widespread severe gales and isolated storm force winds in Atlantic Portpatrick areas late Saturday and into Sunday

Extended outlook overview

The extended outlooks are issued once a day, at 2300, GMT and cover the next 3 to 5 days.

For the extend outlooks the waters surrounding the British Isles are divided into three areas; Cullercoast, Portpatrick and Niton. These three areas reflect the coverage areas of the UK's Navtex transmitters, which overlap in some areas.

The extended outlook forecast contains details of the likelihood of gales or storms, a general synopsis and a general forecast for the area of coverage of each Navtex transmitter.

In the UK, the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) is responsible for the provision of Maritime Safety Information (MSI) to ships at sea, which includes the broadcast of warnings and forecasts. The Met Office initiates warnings and prepares routine forecasts for dissemination on behalf of the MCA.

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