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Extended Outlook

Extended outlook forecast

Issued: 2120 on Fri 29 Aug 2014 UTC

Issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency

Valid from 2200 on Sun 31 Aug 2014 UTC until 2200 on Wed 03 Sep 2014 UTC

Cullercoats

On Sunday evening a deep area of low pressure, 965, centred south of Iceland, bringing a very strong cyclonic flow across Fair Isle, with southerly winds becoming strong to gale force. Weak high pressure lies over the eastern Norwegian Basin, the North Sea and English Channel. Overnight Sunday into Monday the deep low pressure moves north and begins to fill, displacing the high pressure over the Norwegian basin, and bringing strong to near gale force southwesterly winds to sea areas Fair Isle, Viking and North Utsire. High pressure persists over the North Sea and English Channel. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, high pressure over Scandinavia and the North Sea begins to build, maintaining a strong southwesterly flow over Fair Isle, but bringing light and variable winds elsewhere. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday strong southwesterly winds migrate eastwards again to affect Fair Isle, Viking and North Utsire.

Niton

On Sunday evening a deep area of low pressure, 965, centred south of Iceland, bringing cyclonic conditions and occasionally strong westerly winds to sea area Shannon. At the same time, weak high pressure lies over the English Channel and Bay of Biscay, bringing light and variable winds to the rest of Niton. Overnight Sunday into Monday the deep low pressure near Iceland moves north and begins to fill, allowing high pressure to build across the whole Niton area by midday Monday. Later on Monday, deepening low pressure over Spain allows strong easterly winds to develop over the south of sea area Biscay and the southeast of sea area Fitzroy overnight Monday and through Tuesday. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday these strong easterly winds gradually spread north as high pressure begins to decline, affecting the whole of sea areas Biscay and Fitzroy by Wednesday evening

Portpatrick

On Sunday evening a deep area of low pressure, 965, centred south of Iceland, bringing a very strong cyclonic flow across all but the far southeast of Portpatrick, with strong west or southwesterly winds in sea areas Shannon, Rockall, Malin, Hebrides and Fair Isle, and gale or severe gale force southerly winds in sea areas Bailey, Faeroes and South East Iceland. Cyclonic conditions affect the rest of Portpatrick, but winds are not expected to be strong. Overnight Sunday into Monday the deep low pressure moves north and begins to fill, becoming centred 978 north of Iceland by midday Monday, while high pressure gradually builds across the south of Portpatrick, displacing the cyclonic conditions northwards. Strong southwesterly winds will affect Rockall, Hebrides, Bailey, Fair Isle and Faeroes, while southwesterly gales affect Southeast Iceland. Light winds elsewhere. Little change expected throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, with cyclonic conditions persisting in the north of Portpatrick, and high pressure persisting in the south

Extended outlook overview

The extended outlooks are issued once a day, at 2300, GMT and cover the next 3 to 5 days.

For the extend outlooks the waters surrounding the British Isles are divided into three areas; Cullercoast, Portpatrick and Niton. These three areas reflect the coverage areas of the UK's Navtex transmitters, which overlap in some areas.

The extended outlook forecast contains details of the likelihood of gales or storms, a general synopsis and a general forecast for the area of coverage of each Navtex transmitter.

In the UK, the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) is responsible for the provision of Maritime Safety Information (MSI) to ships at sea, which includes the broadcast of warnings and forecasts. The Met Office initiates warnings and prepares routine forecasts for dissemination on behalf of the MCA.

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