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Extended Outlook

Extended outlook forecast

Issued: 2030 on Wed 22 Oct 2014 UTC

Issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency

Valid from 2100 on Fri 24 Oct 2014 UTC until 2100 on Mon 27 Oct 2014 UTC

Cullercoats

A large area of low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland throughout the four-day period, with central pressure falling from near 980 late Friday to near 960 on Sunday, before starting to fill and transit northeast into the Arctic Ocean. This main low feature is cast in opposition to an intense high over the Baltic States near 1040 throughout. Occasional strong winds are possible in all Cullercoats areas late Friday, with a swathe of gales spreading from the northwest to all areas save the English Channel Cullercoats areas through Saturday. Meanwhile, north of 55 North, winds are expected to increase to severe gales and perhaps storm force winds for a time. These peak winds will ease into early Sunday, leaving widespread strong winds and occasional gales across the Cullercoats area, with gales then once again becoming more sustained and widespread north of 55 North on Monday, perhaps severe Fair Isle later

Niton

A large area of low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland throughout the four-day period, with central pressure falling from near 980 late Friday to near 960 on Sunday, before starting to fill and transit northeast into the Arctic Ocean. This main low feature is cast in opposition to a declining Azores high in continental western Europe near 1025, and also a more intense high over the Baltic States near 1040. No hazardous winds are expected south of 47 North throughout the period. Occasional strong winds are expected in the Niton English Channel areas and Sole throughout, while Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea and Shannon will see an increasing risk of gales through Saturday, perhaps severe Irish Sea and Shannon. This risk of gales and severe gales will generally recede to strong winds early Sunday, however further gales are possible in these northern Niton areas later Sunday and into Monday

Portpatrick

A large area of low pressure is expected to lie in the vicinity of Iceland throughout the four-day period, with central pressure falling from near 980 late Friday to near 960 on Sunday, before starting to fill and transit northeast into the Arctic Ocean. This main low feature is cast in opposition to a declining Azores high in continental western Europe near 1025, and also a more intense high over the Baltic States near 1040. Occasional strong winds are possible in all Portpatrick areas through the period, although winds may periodically fall light in Southeast Iceland. Gales are possible at first in Atlantic Portpatrick areas late Friday, increasing severe gale north of 52 North and then storm later Saturday and into Sunday, especially Rockall, Malin, Hebrides. This risk of storm-force winds and severe gales will generally recede to occasional gales early Sunday, however further severe gales are possible in Rockall, Malin, Hebrides into Monday, perhaps also Fair Isle later

Extended outlook overview

The extended outlooks are issued once a day, at 2300, GMT and cover the next 3 to 5 days.

For the extend outlooks the waters surrounding the British Isles are divided into three areas; Cullercoast, Portpatrick and Niton. These three areas reflect the coverage areas of the UK's Navtex transmitters, which overlap in some areas.

The extended outlook forecast contains details of the likelihood of gales or storms, a general synopsis and a general forecast for the area of coverage of each Navtex transmitter.

In the UK, the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) is responsible for the provision of Maritime Safety Information (MSI) to ships at sea, which includes the broadcast of warnings and forecasts. The Met Office initiates warnings and prepares routine forecasts for dissemination on behalf of the MCA.

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