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Extended Outlook

2100 UTC Sunday 1 May to 2100 UTC Wednesday 4 May 2016
Issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, at 292046 UTC

Cullercoats

On Sunday evening low pressure centred near Bailey and over Iceland will maintain a cyclonic flow across much of the Cullercoats area, but with a ridge extending northeast through the English Channel. Ridge then expected to decline for a time on Monday, before becoming re-established in the south by early Tuesday. Pressure then likely to build northeast into the North Sea during the day, with an anticyclone expected to be centred near Brest by midnight Wednesday. Current expectations are then for high pressure to persist across the south of Cullercoats through Wednesday but with a cyclonic flow persisting in the north. Near gale to gale force winds expected at times north of 58 N on Sunday evening and into Monday morning then moderating from the south by mid-afternoon. Winds may then reach near gale force in the far northwest of the area later on Wednesday

Niton

On Sunday evening a ridge will extend northeast from the Azores high across much of the Niton area, but with low pressure centred near Bailey maintaining a cyclonic flow in the north. The cyclonic flow is then expected to transfer further south for a time on Monday, but with the ridge becoming re-established across much of the area by midnight Tuesday. Anticyclone then expected to move northeast to be centred near Brest by Wednesday morning, then current expectations are for the high to transfer east through northern France during Wednesday, allowing a more cyclonic flow to return to the northwest of the Niton area. Near gale to gale force winds expected to develop in the far northwest of the forecast area on Sunday evening and early on Monday, then slowly moderate by Monday evening. Further gales are then currently forecast to develop the northwest of the Niton area on Wednesday

Portpatrick

On Sunday evening low pressure centred near Bailey and over Iceland will maintain a cyclonic flow across the Portpatrick area. Low expected to transfer northeast through sea areas Fair Isle and Southeast Iceland through Monday morning, to be centred to the northeast of Iceland by midnight Tuesday as a ridge builds in the far south by the same time. The ridge then expected to transfer northeast during Tuesday, with a cyclonic flow persisting in the far north of Portpatrick, and returning to the southwest by midnight Wednesday. Wednesday is currently expected to see a strong cyclonic flow becoming re-established across all the forecast area. Near gale to gale force winds south of 59 N on Sunday evening will transfer northeast during Monday, but with further gales likely in the south during the evening. These gales then expected to transfer northeast and weaken during Tuesday morning. Current expectations are then for occasional gales to develop south of 62 N during Wednesday

Extended outlook overview

The extended outlooks are issued once a day, at 2300 GMT and cover the next 3 to 5 days.

For the extend outlooks the waters surrounding the British Isles are divided into three areas; Cullercoats, Portpatrick and Niton. These three areas reflect the coverage areas of the UK's Navtex transmitters, which overlap in some areas.

The extended outlook forecast contains details of the likelihood of gales or storms, a general synopsis and a general forecast for the area of coverage of each Navtex transmitter.

In the UK, the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) is responsible for the provision of Maritime Safety Information (MSI) to ships at sea, which includes the broadcast of warnings and forecasts. The Met Office initiates warnings and prepares routine forecasts for dissemination on behalf of the MCA.

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