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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Aug 2017 to Tuesday 5 Sep 2017:

Sunday will probably become changeable again, with heavy showers or longer spells of rain arriving, particularly in the north and west. However, parts of the southeast are likely to stay mainly dry with some sunny spells. It will be windy at times, especially in the north. On Monday a band of cloud and rain may sink southwards across the country, with brighter conditions following on behind. Into the following week, there remains a lot of uncertainty, although we could continue to see spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the northwest. It will be drier in general across the southeast, although there is a risk of some thundery showers here at times. Temperatures will probably be near normal, though perhaps rather warm at times in the south.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Sep 2017 to Wednesday 20 Sep 2017:

During this period, we are most likely to see changeable weather conditions featuring across the United Kingdom. However, there will be some dry and fine weather at times too. On balance spells of rain and strong winds are likely to dominate in the north and west, with drier and brighter weather more common in the south and east. Temperatures will probably remain close to normal for the time of year in most parts, though they may become warm or very warm at times in the south which may generate some thunderstorms.

Updated: 15:17 on Tue 22 Aug 2017 BST

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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