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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Aug 2017 to Thursday 10 Aug 2017:

Remaining unsettled with sunny spells and showers through Tuesday. The heaviest and most frequent showers affecting the north and west, with much of the south staying largely dry, with sunny spells. We are likely to see a low pressure system push in from the Atlantic on Wednesday, bringing a spell of wet and windy weather to some western parts of the United Kingdom, spreading to all parts on Thursday. Thereafter, we are likely to see a return to sunshine and showers, most frequent and heaviest in the northwest. Into the weekend and early next week, we may begin to see conditions becoming more settled across the UK, with high pressure building from the southwest, with a predominately north-westerly flow. Temperatures will generally be around normal to rather cool throughout.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Aug 2017 to Friday 25 Aug 2017:

There are increasing signals for high pressure to build during this period, which would allow for more settled conditions across the United Kingdom, with a predominately west to north-westerly flow becoming established. However, there will still be the risk of spells of rain or showers, mainly in the north, but overall a good deal of dry weather with some sunshine, especially in the south. Temperatures generally near normal by day, but potentially rather cool at night. By the middle of August signals become mixed, with low confidence. On balance though, we are most likely to see a northwest/southeast split in weather conditions across the United Kingdom, with some rain or showers in the northwest and drier conditions with some sunshine in the southeast.

Updated: 01:39 on Fri 28 Jul 2017 BST

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).