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Long Range Weather

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Forecast summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Oct 2016 to Sunday 6 Nov 2016:

High pressure will remain established across the south through Friday and into the weekend, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. However, some will see occasional mist and fog form overnight and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with some cold nights in the south, perhaps with local frost. Meanwhile, the north could be wet and windier at times through Friday and Saturday. However, from Sunday onwards there will be much colder weather with night frosts. Later in the period there is major uncertainty with the potential for cold conditions persisting but southern areas could turn wetter, windier and milder at times.

Updated at: 1251 on Sun 23 Oct 2016

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Nov 2016 to Monday 21 Nov 2016:

There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to this part of the forecast. At first at least it looks likely that the weather pattern will remain quite blocked, meaning that it will be slow to change and probably a stay a bit drier than normal in the west, whilst rain and showers are more likely in the east at times. With this we are also less likely to see strong winds and the typical occasional stormy conditions that we usually see during the autumn. Given the time of year, and the predominance of a blocked pattern, temperatures may be on the cold side of normal. Later in November we may start to see more unsettled, changeable and sometimes windy weather again, especially towards the northwest.

Updated at: 1251 on Sun 23 Oct 2016

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).