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Long Range Weather

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Forecast summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 21 Dec 2016:

It will turn wetter in the northwest on Monday with a risk of local gales. It'll be generally dry and bright for most, but patchy overnight frost and fog are likely in the southeast. Through the week, further periods of wet and windy weather are expected to move across the UK. The most unsettled conditions are likely across the north and west with drier and brighter weather for southern and eastern areas. By mid December there will probably be some longer, drier spells between the wet weather, perhaps heralding a change to something generally more settled. It will also be fairly mild initially but temperatures are likely to return closer to normal, although passing weather systems may raise them at times.

Updated at: 1137 on Wed 7 Dec 2016

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Dec 2016 to Thursday 5 Jan 2017:

Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty for this period, it is most likely that more settled conditions may dominate associated with high pressure affecting the UK. If the pressure does build, then we can expect drier than average conditions for most areas with lighter winds. Temperatures are also then likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. There will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes though, and as we head into the New Year this may become more of a feature in our weather.

Updated at: 1137 on Wed 7 Dec 2016

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).