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Long Range Forecast

Forecast Summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jun 2017 to Saturday 10 Jun 2017:

Thursday and Friday will be mainly dry with sunny spells for most, although cloud and rain could spread southeastwards during the day. Still rather warm and humid in the southeast, with the chance of some thundery showers. Through the rest of the period, we are likely to see a more changeable pattern becoming established across the United Kingdom, with northern and western parts seeing spells of rain or showers at times. Meanwhile, many southern and eastern parts should be drier and brighter overall, with any spells of rain that do spread southeastwards likely to be fairly weak. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be near normal in the north and west, but warm in many southern and eastern areas.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jun 2017 to Sunday 25 Jun 2017:

Confidence is low during this period, although we are likely to see the changeable pattern continuing across the United Kingdom through the early part of June, with a predominately west or southwesterly flow. The unsettled conditions mainly affecting northern and western parts early on, but gradually these look likely to spread southeastwards, with temperatures near normal. By mid to late June confidence remains low, although on balance we are likely to see a continuation of the changeable conditions for many, with temperatures remaining near the average. However, there is a low probability of a more settled and perhaps warmer spell of weather possible around mid-June, mainly in the southeast.

Updated: 02:43 on Sun 28 May 2017 BST

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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