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Long Range Forecast

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Forecast Summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Mar 2017 to Thursday 6 Apr 2017:

Many places will be mostly dry with sunny spells on Tuesday and Wednesday, once any early mist and fog patches clear. However, we may see the increasing chance of outbreaks of showery rain affecting south-western parts during Tuesday. Becoming more unsettled generally across the UK from Wednesday onwards. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be across north-western parts, where it will be wet and windy at times, with gales in places. Meanwhile, much of southern and eastern parts will hold onto the driest conditions, although even here some rain and windier conditions are likely. Temperatures will stay generally rather warm, and frosts becoming less likely. The start of April will see a good deal of settled and dry weather across the UK, with unsettled conditions likely in the northwest.

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Apr 2017 to Friday 21 Apr 2017:

Much of this period will see a good deal of settled and dry weather across the UK. However, we are likely to see unsettled conditions with cloud, rain and strong winds affecting the far north and west of the UK at times, particularly at the start of the period. However, such unsettled spells of weather are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average, but with rather chilly nights at times, with frost and fog in places. Any colder spells are likely to be short-lived, although there slight indications these may be more prevalent later in the month.

Updated: 14:58 on Thu 23 Mar 2017 GMT

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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