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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Saturday 23 Mar - Monday 1 Apr

Sunny spells and showers across the UK on Saturday. The showers will heavy and thundery at times, perhaps with hail in places. The showers are expected to gradually die out from the northwest later in the day, with most places dry by the evening. Mainly dry Sunday morning with sunny spells before cloud increases from the west later, some rain probably reaching western areas later in the day. Temperatures are expected to be below normal over the weekend. Into the following week, unsettled conditions will likely develop across many parts with Atlantic frontal systems spreading in from the west. All areas will see periods of wet weather, with some drier spells in-between. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in the south, with northern areas slightly drier but cooler.

Tuesday 2 Apr - Tuesday 16 Apr

Into April pressure is likely to be higher than average to the north of the UK, with low pressure more likely to the west or southwest. This pattern tends to push the focus of unsettled weather further south than usual, with highest rainfall most likely to be in the south of the UK. Conversely, northern areas tend to be drier compared to normal. Temperatures will probably be near average or slightly above overall, with any cooler interludes most likely in the north.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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