Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Wednesday 1 May - Friday 10 May
In the first part of this period, many areas of the UK are expected to see periods of rain or showers. Some of these showers will be heavy and thundery, with the greatest chance of thunderstorms in the southeast. Along with this will be a fair amount of low cloud in the east at times, with spells of coastal fog, but also temperatures generally above average for the time of year. Overall, northwestern parts of the UK are likely to be driest and sunniest. Through the second week, temperatures will return closer to normal, perhaps dipping back below average, but it will also tend to turn gradually drier and more settled, with changeable conditions most likely to hang on longest in the south and southeast.
Saturday 11 May - Saturday 25 May
In this period, the chances of unsettled weather are slightly less than usual in the north and about the same as usual further south. Therefore, some spells of wet weather are likely for all, but perhaps especially across southern areas with the driest conditions relative to normal probably further north. The chance of below or above average temperatures is fairly balanced overall, but it is worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).