Space Weather Forecast Headline: Risk of R, G and S-scale events all falling during the coming four-day period.

Solar Activity: Solar activity was moderate in the past 24 hours, with the peak flare being an impulsive small Moderate-class flare observed from part of the off-going agglomeration of sunspot regions on the southwestern solar horizon at 25/1712UTC. The flare trace itself showed contrasting behaviours of fewer large Common and small Moderate-class flares, but at the same time exhibited a gradually rising background to more comfortably lie within Common-class. The gradual rotation onto the western solar horizon of this mass of active regions in the past 24 hours has reduced the overall number of sunspot groups to around ten as of the last solar analysis.

Much of the surviving Earth-facing sunspot population comprises smaller regions than of late, although there are some more developmental areas - namely a group in the southwest, with a trailing spot growing to its southeast. It has been generally true of the period that some of the remining larger and more complex regions showed decaying areal trends, with these groups including one near the middle of the Sun, and a second in the northwest.

The cadence of observed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) remains relatively high on imagery, although those observed in the period were either high latitude peripheral features or else far-sided. No new observed events were added to the CME roster in the 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed an initial slow regime, transitioning to minor CME influence shortly after UTC midnight. The CME responsible is not known, however an upstream satellite shows brief glimpses of a similarly-timed arrival amongst data gaps, which perhaps hints at an western solar hemisphere CME candidate. This is, however, conjectural - and scarcely narrows the candidate list given the rate of emissions from regions like those now departing the southwest.

The solar wind speed initially showed a slow decline before undergoing a step-change upwards before settling nearer by the period's end - all near typical background levels. The number of particles comprising the solar wind was less conclusive given the low values involved, but perhaps showed a slight increase after the arrival. The associated magnetic field, which had been steady at background in the tail of the UTC day of Thursday rose to a slightly elevated high after the CME, with the north-south component mainly anti-aligned with respect to Earth's field.

The net result of the above solar wind measures was nevertheless subdued, perhaps because of the low solar wind speeds and densities involved.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were very slightly above resting background levels (since 24/1400UTC) with the culprit most likely to be associated with southwestern quadrant Moderate-class flare activity. Even at peak this registered at fractions of a pfu (where 10pfu is Minor Solar Radiation Storm S1).

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: The X-ray forecast should see decreasing risks overall into the coming UTC weekend, as the cluster of southwestern regions more fully rotates off the facing side. Likely Moderate-class activity should fall to a chance during this time, with Strong-class showing a similar decrease within a daily slight chance.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is now a reduced risk of further minor CME influence during the first half of the four-day period after the passage of a minor CME in the current UTC day. Any CME may combine with an emerging fast wind into the coming UTC weekend to perhaps give a peak slight chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 as a result. From here, the chances of further such incidences should fall, with fast winds emanating from lower solar latitude 'coronal holes' perhaps glancing Earth in turn into the new UTC week. The result is that more reliably quiet geomagnetic conditions should develop later in the period.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is likely to remain at Background levels, but with a daily slight chance of reaching the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold, now judged to gradually reduce later in the four days with the continuing passage of the southwestern cluster of sunspot groups onto the far side.