This website uses cookies. Read about how we use cookies.

Seasonal prediction

Predicted ENSO index (Nino 3.4).

The group develops forecasting capabilities on seasonal timescales.

The main prediction system currently used for seasonal timescales is Met Office seasonal prediction system: GloSea5. It is an ensemble prediction system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (variant of Met Office climate prediction model: HadGEM3 family), to generate probabilistic forecasts up to six months ahead. GloSea5 includes uncertainties due to initial conditions and model formulation.

In a major change from the previous seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5 is fully integrated in the model-development cycle. This is expected to lead to faster improvements in forecasting skill for regional, seasonal scales.

The output from the system is used to generate Monthly to decadal applications.

Key aims

  • To develop an operational forecasting system.

  • To contribute to model development.

  • To generate products required by World Meteorological Organization, from its global producing centres of long-range forecasts (of which the Met Office is one).

Current research

  • Model initialisation, including ocean data assimilation

  • Representation of model uncertainties

  • Calibration of model output and verification

Last updated: Mar 20, 2015 5:49 PM