The group develops forecasting capabilities on seasonal timescales.
The main prediction system currently used for seasonal timescales is GloSea4. It is an ensemble prediction system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (variant of HadGEM3), to generate probabilistic forecasts up to six months ahead. GloSea4 includes uncertainties due to initial conditions and model formulation.
In a major change from the previous seasonal forecasting system, GloSea4 is fully integrated in the model-development cycle. This is expected to lead to faster improvements in forecasting skill for regional, seasonal scales.
The output from the system is used to generate products.
To develop an operational forecasting system.
To contribute to model development.
To generate products required by World Meteorological Organization, from its global producing centres of long-range forecasts (of which the Met Office is one).
Model initialisation, including ocean data assimilation
Representation of model uncertainties
Calibration of model output and verification