Emily investigates the potential for producing seasonal forecasts of extreme daily weather events.
Emily investigates the skill of the seasonal prediction system GloSea4 in forecasting extreme daily weather events on seasonal time scales. Currently the focus of this work is on predicting temperature and precipitation extremes over large geographic areas. Prediction of other variables and downscaling may be investigated at a later date. The forecasts are based on output from the dynamic forecasting system. Statistical post-processing is being developed to improve the skill.
A parallel investigation is being made on decadal time scales by Rosemary Eade using the decadal prediction system DePreSys. This joined-up approach could allow extreme weather events to be predicted seamlessly on monthly to multi-annual time scales.
If there is sufficient skill, probabilistic seasonal forecasts of extreme daily weather events will be made on an operational basis.
Emily joined the Met Office Hadley Centre in 2009. Prior to this, she completed a PhD in extreme value theory at the Department of Mathematics in Cardiff University. It was here that she also received her undergraduate degree.
Last updated: 3 March 2014