Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 5 May - Tuesday 14 May
An uncertain period through the bank holiday weekend with the most likely result a warm but cloudy day Sunday with a few light showers, then increasingly cloudy with rain spreading from the west, though weakening as it does so, however there remains a broad spread of solutions with the threat of showery spells a common feature. Into the new week all areas are likely to see a mixture of showery periods or spells of rain, though generally drier conditions expected to develop through the following week away from the northeast as high pressure develops to the west. Sunniest conditions across the south, cloudiest in the north and east. Temperatures mostly a little above normal for early May.
Wednesday 15 May - Wednesday 29 May
In this period, the chances of unsettled weather are slightly less than usual in the far north but trending to slightly more unsettled further south. Therefore, some spells of wet weather are likely for all, but perhaps especially across southern/central areas while the driest conditions relative to normal are probably further north. The chance of below or above average temperatures is fairly balanced overall, slightly cooler around mid-month but recovering soon after, though it is worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).