Global average temperature forecast for 2014

19 December 2013 - The global average temperature in 2014 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.57 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast, it is likely that 2014 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1880.

The forecast range and central estimate for 2014 are the same as were forecast by the Met Office for 2013.

Using observations up to the end of October 2013, this year's global average temperature is currently estimated to be between 0.39 °C and 0.59 °C, with a central estimate of 0.49 °C*. Using this central estimate, 2013 currently ranks as the 9th warmest** year on record, but final figures for the whole year will not be available until March 2014.

The current central estimate of the global temperature for 2013 is within the range forecast by the Met Office last year. 2013 is also in the top ten warmest years and is more likely than not to be warmer than 2012, both of which were predicted in last year's global average temperature forecast.

* Observationally based estimates of global average temperature are an average of the three main global temperature datasets, which are compiled by the Met Office and University of East Anglia (HadCRUT4), NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS).

** The table below shows the 10 warmest years globally ranked according to their central estimates. 2013 only includes data from Jan to Oct, so may change. All temperatures from observations have an uncertainty range of ± 0.1 °C. The anamoly is in °C above long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C.

RankYearWMO Global Temperature Anomaly
120100.56
220050.55
319980.52
420030.51
520020.50
620070.50
720060.49
820090.49
92013 (Jan-Oct)0.49
1020120.47

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Last updated: 20 December 2013