UK weather

Headline:

Rain reaching many areas during the week ahead.

Today:

A rather grey start this morning, with outbreaks of rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Largely dry for England and Wales with spells of hazy sunshine developing. Feeling warm in the sunshine across the south, but near average temperatures elsewhere.

Tonight:

Rather cloudy with further outbreaks of rain across northern areas, with the rain heaviest in western Scotland. Mostly dry further south with some clear spells.

Monday:

Remaining cloudy in the north with outbreaks of rain, turning heavier and more persistent later. Further south, hazy sunshine will develop, making it feel very warm and humid.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Rain gradually clearing to the south throughout Tuesday introducing fresher conditions. Largely dry in the south Wednesday, otherwise a mix of sunshine and showers. Showers becoming more widespread Thursday.

The first few days of this period are likely to be rather changeable, with many parts of the UK seeing showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain. Thereafter, high pressure becomes increasingly probable over the north and west, with low pressure to the south of the UK. This will lead to further spells of showers and longer spells of rain, but the north may see more in the way of drier conditions. Within this broad pattern, there is potential for Atlantic lows to spread across the UK at times, which would bring more widespread rain and perhaps strong winds. Temperatures are more likely to be above normal than below overall, though the possibility of widespread or exceptional heat is perhaps a little lower than in recent weeks.

As we move into the start of meteorological autumn, signals for the prevailing weather patterns affecting the UK are weak, thus something close to the climatological norm is most likely. This means a broad northwest-southeast split in conditions, with the high becoming centred further to the south than in the latter part of August and with more changeable conditions developing towards the north and northwest. Meanwhile, drier, more settled weather is slightly more likely towards the south and east. Temperatures are again likely to be near to or above average overall. There is a chance that late season hot spells or heatwaves develop, especially in the south.