Observed and Forecast Tracks: Northern Hemisphere 2009
All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2009 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone. Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kujira (01W) | 02-07 May | 115/80 knots | Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this storm and the model showed skill over CLIPER. There was a slow bias in forecasts, although the direction of track was well predicted. |
| Chan-hom (02W) | 03-11 May | 85/75 knots | The direction of motion of this storm was well predicted, but there was a large slow bias resulting in track errors larger than last season's average. However, the model still showed good skill over CLIPER. |
| Linfa (03W) | 17-22 June | 75/60 knots | Forecasts for Linfa were very good. The direction and speed of movement were well pedicted and track errors were very low whilst skill scores were very high. |
| Nangka (04W) | 22-26 June | 45/40 knots | Nangka took a similar track to Fengshen in 2008 and the model showed the same bias. Early forecast tracks tended to have a right-of-track bias and later tracks a slight slow bias. Hence, track errors were a little above last season's average. |
| Soudelor (05W) | 09-12 July | 35/35 knots | Soudelor was only briefly a tropical storm and just one 24-hour forecast was verified. |
| 06W | 13-14 July | 30/30 knots | 06W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified. |
| Molave (07W) | 15-19 July | 65/65 knots | Forecasts for Molave were mixed with some showing a leftwards and fast bias and some very accurate. Track forecast errors were above last season's average at 24 and 48 hours, but below this average at 72 hours. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Goni (08W) | 02-08 August | 45/35 knots | Track forecast errors were generally below last season's average and the model gave some indication of the southward motion back out over the ocean near Hainan Island. |
| Morakot (09W) | 03-10 August | 85/80 knots | Track forecast errors were large for this storm, particularly at longer lead times. This is as a result of failing to capture the northward turn of Morakot once it had passed over Taiwan. |
| Etau (10W) | 08-13 August | 35/50 knots | The recurvature of Etau south of Japan was well signalled by the model, although forecasts had a slow bias. Hence track errors were large at some lead times. |
| Vamco (11W) | 17-25 August | 115/90 knots | There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts, but in general the motion of the storm was well predicted, with track forecast errors mostly below last season's average. |
| Krovanh (12W) | 28 August - 01 September | 60/60 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average primarily due to a fast bias in early forecasts. However, later forecasts predicted the recurvature close to the coast of Japan reasonably well. |
| Dujuan (13W) | 03-09 September | 55/50 knots | As with Krovanh, early forecasts were worse than later ones. Prediction of the rate of acceleration during extr-tropical transition were erratic resulting in track forecast error larger than last season's average, particularly at longer lead times. However, skill scores againsy CLIPER up to 72-hours were good. |
| Mujigae (14W) | 09-11 September | 30/35 knots | Mujigae only briefly attained tropical storm status (according to JMA only) and no forecasts were verified. |
| Choi-wan (15W) | 12-20 September | 140/100 knots | An early forecast failed to predict recurvature, but apart from that forecasts were good resulting in track errors below last season's average at all lead times except 144 hours and high skill scores against CLIPER. |
| Koppu (16W) | 13-15 September | 70/65 knots | Koppu was relatively short lived with just one 48-hour forecast verified. Track forecast errors were close to last season's average at 24 hours lead time. |
| Ketsana (17W) | 25-30 September | 90/75 knots | Predictions of the typhoon's westward motion and landfall over Vietnam were well predicted and track forecast errors were below last season's average. |
| 18W | 27-30 September | 35/30 knots | just one 12-hour forecast was verified for 18W. |
| Parma (19W) | 27 September - 14 October | 130/105 knots | Apart from a couple of early forecasts, track predictions for Parma were good. In particular, the slow movement near the Philippines for several days was well predicted as was the eventual progression across the South China Sea. Track forecast errors were generally below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Melor (20W) | 29 September - 09 October | 145/110 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high. Some forecasts prematurely recurved Melor and some had a slow bias. There was a slight right-of-track bias at the point of landfall over Japan, although the magnitude of the error was quite small. |
| Nepartak (21W) | 08-13 October | 55/45 knots | The north-eastward acceleration of Nepartak was not well predicted on the whole resulting in track forecast errors above last season'a average. |
| Lupit (22W) | 14-27 October | 135/95 knots | Short lead time track errors were fairly good and the model did fairly well at predicting the first turn northwards followed by the return to a westward track. However, the model did not pick up on the eventual recurvature, instead predicting a slow west-southwestward drift. This resulted in some very large errors at longer lead times. Incidentally, the Met Office ensemble prediction system (MOGREPS) did a much better job at predicting the recurvature of Lupit than did the deterministic model. |
| Mirinae (23W) | 26 October - 02 November | 90/75 knots | There was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts for this typhoon, but generally the model did well. Track errors were below last season's average by a significant margin at longer lead times and skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| 24W | 02-03 November | 30/- knots | This system was brief lived and did not reach tropical storm status. |
| 25W | 07-09 November | 45/30 knots | This system briefly reached tropical storm status according to JTWC, but no forecasts were verified. |
| Nida (26W) | 22 November-03 December | 160/115 knots | Met Office global model forecasts were predicting a westward turn for Nida when many other models were predicted rapid recurvature. Although, the westward turn did not happen immediately, neither did recurvature and Nida did eventually turn west prior to dissipation. Hence, track forecast errors were near to last season's average at short lead times and only significantly above average at 84 hours and beyond. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high. There was a left-of-track bias in results as would be expected given the premature forecast of the westward turn. |
| 27W | 23-24 November | 30/- knots | This system was brief lived and did not reach tropical storm status. |
| 28W | 05 December | 35/- knots | 28W only briefly attained tropical storms status (according to JTWC) and no forecasts were verified. |
North-West Pacific observed tracks in 2009
North-West Pacific tropical
cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01E | 18-20 June | 30 knots | 01E was a tropical depression and no forecasts were verified. |
| Andres (02E) | 21-24 June | 65 knots | The model showed a right-of-track and slow bias for Andres resulting in track errors above last season's average. However, Andres was only above tropical storm strength for two days, so only a few forecasts were verified. |
| Blanca (03E) | 06-09 July | 45 knots | Just two 24-hour forecasts were verified for this storm and track errors were small. |
| Carlos (04E) | 10-16 July | 90 knots | The westward movement of this hurricane was well predicted, but the model had a fast bias which resulted in track errors above last season's average. However, skill scores against CLIPER were positive. |
| Dolores (05E) | 15-17 July | 45 knots | Only one 24-hour forecast was verified for this storm. The model had a left-of-track bias. |
| Enrique (07E) | 03-07 August | 50 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in 48-hour track errors above last season's average. |
| Felicia (08E) | 04-11 August | 125 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly low and skill scores high for this hurricane. There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts. |
| 09E | 09-13 August | 30 knots | 09E was a tropical depression and no forecasts were verified. |
| Guillermo (10E) | 12-20 August | 110 knots | Track forecast errors were generally low and skill scores against CLIPER high for this hurricane. |
| Hilda (11E) | 22-28 August | 55 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's avarega for this storm. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Ignacio (12E) | 24-27 August | 45 knots | Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this storm. |
| Jimena (13E) | 29 August - 04 September | 135 knots | Forecasts for Jimena had a left-of-track bias resulting in increasingly large track forecast errors with lead time. However, skill scores against CLIPER were good. |
| Kevin (14E) | 29 August - 01 September | 45 knots | Kevin was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified. |
| Linda (15E) | 07-12 September | 70 knots | Forecasts had a slow and left-of-track bias resulting in errors above last season's average. |
| Marty (16E) | 16-19 September | 40 knots | Just two 24-hour forecasts were verified for Marty. Track forecast errors were low. |
| Nora (17E) | 23-25 September | 50 knots | Just one 24-hour forecast was verified for Nora. The track error was low. |
| Olaf (18E) | 01-04 October | 40 knots | Olaf was fairly short lived and just one 24-hour forecast was verified. |
| Patricia (19E) | 11-14 October | 50 knots | Forecast tracks were a little fast for this storm, but few forecasts were verified since it was fairly short-lived. |
| Rick (20E) | 15-21 October | 155 knots | The north-eastwards turn of Rick was not picked up by the model. Instead it a continued north-westwards track. Hence, track forecast errors were generally high and skill scores relatively low. |
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lana (06E) | 30 July-03 August | 55 knots | Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this storm. |
| Maka (01C) | 11-18 August | 45 knots | Maka was a tropical storm briefly early in its life then after a period of being a tropical depression again strengthened to become a tropical storm. Only a few forecasts were verified. |
| 02C | 29-30 August | 30 knots | 02C was a tropical depression and no forecasts were verified. |
| Neki (03C) | 19-27 October | 105 knots | Early forecasts for Neki were poor since they failed to predict the northwards turn and slow down of the hurricane. Hence, track forecast errors were much above average particularly at longer lead times. However, the model still managed to show considerable skill against CLIPER. |
North-East and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2009
North-East Pacific tropical cyclone names
Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01L | 28-29 May | 30 knots | No forecasts were verified since this system did not attain tropical storm strength. |
| Ana (02L) | 11-17 August | 35 knots | Although Ana existed for several days only a brief period of this was as a tropical storm, so just one 24-hour forecast was verified. The track forecast error was small. |
| Bill (03L) | 15-23 August | 115 knots | There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts for Bill resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average at 72-hours and beyond. However, skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Claudette (04L) | 16-17 August | 45 knots | Claudette was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts at 24 hours or beyond were verified. |
| Danny (05L) | 26-29 August | 50 knots | There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts, although track forecast errors were near to last season's average and the 24-hour skill score was high. |
| Erika (06L) | 01-04 September | 50 knots | Erika was a short-lived storm. The few forecasts verified had a fast bias. |
| Fred (07L) | 07-12 September | 105 knots | The formation of Fred from an easterly wave in the eastern Atlantic was very well signalled by the model. Track forecast errors were also low and the deceleration and dissipation were well predicted. |
| 08L | 25-26 September | 30 knots | No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression. |
| Grace (09L) | 05-06 October | 60 knots | Although Grace existed for some time as a non-tropical feature, it was only briefly a tropical storm and only one 24-hour forecast was verified. |
| Henri (10L) | 06-08 October | 45 knots | Henri was yet another Atlantic storm which succumbed to shear in 2009 and thus was fairly short-lived. |
| Ida (11L) | 04-10 November | 90 knots | Ida was generally well predicted with track forecast errors below last season's average - particularly at longer lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. There was a slight slow bias resulting in forecasts predicting final landfall over the USA a little later than occurred. |
North Atlantic observed tracks in 2009
North Atlantic tropical
cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijli (01B) | 15-17 April | 50/40 knots | The global model was too weak and too slow on the northward track of Bijli. Hence track errors were large. However, the higher resolution South Asia model (tracks appended below global model chart) gave a much better track and intensity prediction. |
| Aila (02B) | 24-25 May | 65/55 knots | The global model (top chart) did a little better than the South Asia Model (bottom chart) with regard to landfall location. However, the latter model gave a better intensity prediction. |
| 03B | 05 September | 35/30 knots | No forecasts were verified for this short-lived storm. |
| Phyan (04A) | 07-11 November | 50/35 knots | Track forecasts were better from the South Asia Model (bottom chart) than the global model (top chart). The former correctly predicted landfall, whilst the latter tended to keep the storm just offshore. |
| Ward (05B) | 11-14 December | 50/45 knots | Global model track forecast errors for Ward were larger than last season's average due to a propensity to move the storm westwards too quickly. South Asia Model (bottom chart) errors were slightly smaller. |
North Indian observed tracks in 2009
North Indian tropical cyclone
names
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA
Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average,
this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning
centres.
