Weather and climate change

Headline:

Thunderstorms continuing and feeling humid for some.

Today:

Early thunderstorms in east and southeast England soon clearing. Further thunderstorms will be a daytime risk in central and eastern England. Occasionally heavy rain over other parts of England and Wales will move eastwards, easing later. Sunshine and showers elsewhere.

Tonight:

Any lingering daytime rain over east and southeast England will clear. Elsewhere will see clear spells and a few showers in the north and west, where it will be breezy.

Thursday:

Sunshine and showers, with the risk of thunder across the north and northwest, and strong winds here. There will be fewer showers in the south but it will be breezy.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Drier and brighter for many, with showers becoming confined to the north. Becoming warm and humid across central and southern areas on Sunday, but turning unsettled from the southwest later.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 19 Jun 2019

On Sunday most places will start fine, bright, and dry and remain so through much of the day, especially in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures will recover to normal or be locally warm. However, for southwestern and western parts heavy rain and some strong winds should arrive during the day as low pressure moves towards the UK from the southwest. Rain is likely to spread northward and eastwards into Monday bringing unsettled weather more widely for the start of the next week. As we head into late June there are signs that high pressure may become more dominant, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather with temperatures mostly near normal. However, by early July we may see a return to greater influence from Atlantic again, although confidence is low.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 19 Jun 2019

During the first half of July predictability becomes very low, with mixed signals. However, at present the favored solution is for increased Atlantic mobility through this period, bringing spells of unsettled weather to the UK, generally associated with low pressure systems, interspersed by more settled anticyclonic regimes. This will likely mean that showers or longer spells of rain will affect northwestern parts of the UK, whilst the south and southeast will see more in the way of dry weather: although some thundery outbreaks are likely in the south and southeast as is usual this time of year. Temperatures through the period will probably near or slightly above average.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 19 Jun 2019