Weather and climate change

Headline:

Much of England unsettled for the next few days.

Today:

Sunny spells and a few showers for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Rather cloudy start for most of England and Wales. Sunny spells then developing for many away from the east, but also some showers over southern, eastern and central England.

Tonight:

Late afternoon showers fading away this evening leaving most areas dry with clear spells overnight. Rain may return to parts of southern England and East Anglia during the early hours.

Friday:

Fine and dry across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cloudier and breezy for much of England and Wales with spells of heavy rain developing over eastern, southern and central England.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Rain clears early Saturday, leaving a mainly fine day. Further rain or showers follow for the end of the weekend and into Monday - risk of hail and thunder; cooler.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 17 Jun 2021

Unsettled conditions are likely at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, a risk thunder and perhaps hail, and longer spells of rain are possible in the north and west. Through the first half of next week, Atlantic air looks likely to spread across the country from the west, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 16 Jun 2021

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 16 Jun 2021