Weather and climate change

Headline:

Becoming increasingly warm over the next few days.

Today:

A dry but cloudy start for many, with the cloud slowly clearing to give warm sunny spells. Cloud persisting, perhaps, across eastern Wales, the Midlands, and the North Sea coast. A strong, gusty wind developing in far southwestern parts later.

Tonight:

Dry with cloud advancing across eastern and central England and flirting with far northern Scotland. Good clear spells elsewhere and chilly in Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the southwest.

Thursday:

Dry, increasingly sunny and very warm with the hottest conditions in the west and south. Cooler on eastern coasts where cloud persists. Strong, gusty winds in southwest England.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Friday and Saturday, largely dry and sunny. Very warm for most, hot in parts of the south. Turning fresher from the west by Sunday with showers, mainly in the north.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 26 Jun 2019

Sunday will be fresher than of late, with sunny spells and occasional showers. The showers will be heaviest in the northwest, where there will be a risk of thunderstorms and coastal gales. However southeastern areas will stay dry, warm and humid. By Monday, the fresher conditions will spread to all areas. It will likely stay drier across the south and southeast though. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for warm or very warm, perhaps locally hot, and potentially thundery, weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather though. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 26 Jun 2019

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic frontal systems nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather over southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some rain or showers. However, the north and east would see more in the way of drier and settled weather. Temperatures during this period are likely to be around or slightly above normal.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 26 Jun 2019