Weather and climate change

Headline:

Thunderstorms for parts of England Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

This Evening and Tonight:

Thundery rain moving northeastwards across England, mainly the south and east. Cloudy with a little rain for Wales and northern England. Clearer over Scotland and Northern Ireland with a few showers. Warm in the southeast but cooler in the northwest.

Thursday:

Heavy and perhaps thundery rain clearing England late morning. Mainly dry thereafter though a few showers in the northwest and perhaps late afternoon in the southeast. Less warm than Wednesday.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Mostly dry with sunny spells, however heavy and thundery rain will affect parts of southern England on Friday. Further rain and showers again on Sunday. Less warm then recently.

Updated: 17:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 16 Jun 2021

Unsettled conditions are likely at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, a risk thunder and perhaps hail, and longer spells of rain are possible in the north and west. Through the first half of next week, Atlantic air looks likely to spread across the country from the west, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 16 Jun 2021

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 16 Jun 2021