Weather and climate change

Headline:

Warm and muggy with thundery showers for some.

Today:

Cloud with outbreaks of rain spreading slowly east, with potentially thundery showers developing across North Wales, southern Scotland, and parts of northern England during the afternoon. Elsewhere, largely dry and bright. Feeling very warm and humid, particularly in the east.

Tonight:

Showers across northeastern areas will gradually clear before another band of thundery rain moves into southern areas overnight. This potentially torrential rain will track northwards, mainly affecting eastern parts.

Saturday:

Heavy, thundery rain continuing to spread northwards, reaching Scotland during the afternoon. Showers developing widely through the afternoon. Thicker cloud and rain arriving across the southwest later. Warm and muggy.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Remaining unsettled with further heavy and perhaps thundery showers on Sunday and Monday. Chance of some more persistent rain arriving late Tuesday. A little less warm, though still feeling humid.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 18 Jul 2025

Overall a rather more changeable pattern of weather through this period, compared to much of the summer thus far. Wednesday will likely see a continuation of heavy, perhaps thundery showers, although the focus may be more across the north and east by this stage. Thereafter, a general westerly or north-westerly regime looks to become established, with occasional weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. This means further rain or showers and breezy conditions at times, especially in the northwest. This will be interspersed with some drier, sunnier periods. Temperatures are expected to be close to or a little above average for most of the period. This broad pattern is likely to continue through to the end of July.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 18 Jul 2025

The rather changeable pattern will likely continue through early August with spells of rain or showers mixed in with some drier, brighter days. Towards mid-August, there are tentative signs that high pressure may become rather more dominant, which could bring more in the way dry, settled weather more widely. Temperatures will likely continue to be above average overall, with the possibility of very warm or hot spells developing later in the period, especially further south and east.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 17 Jul 2025