Weather and climate change

Headline:

Wet and Windy for many.

This Evening and Tonight:

Storm Henk bringing wet and windy weather to the southern half of the UK as it moves eastwards, with clear spells and showers moving in behind. Some clear spells further north and strong winds and rain for northeast Scotland.

Wednesday:

Rain across northern and eastern Scotland will ease. Otherwise tomorrow will be a day of sunny spells and blustery showers, heavy with hail and thunder in the south and west.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Whilst scattered heavy showers are still possible to end the week, this period will be drier and less windy than of late. Turning colder with overnight frosts becoming more likely.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Jan 2024

Into Sunday and the new week broadly settled conditions quite widely across the country, with colder conditions and some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the east, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible later in the period, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Jan 2024

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Jan 2024