Weather and climate change

Headline:

Thunderstorms developing over parts of England Wednesday night.

Today:

Fine for many, with some hot sunshine for much of England and Wales before evening thunderstorms develop for some. Further north, a few showers over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Tonight:

Thunderstorms moving northwards across parts of England and Wales with heavy rain and lightning, these mainly across southern and central areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland clearer with a few showers.

Thursday:

Band of cloud and light rain across central and western areas. Risk of thunderstorms southeast of this. Mainly dry with sunny spells across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Mostly dry with sunny spells, although heavy, perhaps thundery, rain will affect much of England and parts of Wales on Friday. Rain and showers becoming more widespread again on Sunday.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 15 Jun 2021

Unsettled conditions are likely at the start of this period, with rain and stronger winds in the northwest on Sunday. Further south and east, it will generally be warm and humid, with a risk of thundery showers. Atlantic air is then likely to gradually spread in from the west across the country, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions through the first half of next week. These conditions are likely to continue, bringing occasional spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 15 Jun 2021

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 15 Jun 2021