Weather and climate change

Headline:

Gradually becoming more unsettled as we head through the weekend.

Today:

After a chilly start for most, it will be dry with plenty of sunny spells for many on Friday. Cloudier in the far west with patchy rain, especially over Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where it will be breezy.

Tonight:

Windy, cloudy with patchy rain in the west. Dry with light winds and clear skies elsewhere, bringing a risk of patchy mist, fog and frost by dawn.

Saturday:

Another dry day with sunny spells for many. Cloud and patchy rain remains over Northern Ireland and western Scotland, turning heavier as it reaches western England and Wales by evening.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Rather humid on Sunday as a band of rain, at times heavy, spreads eastwards through the day, before turning to a mixture of sunshine and showers for Monday and Tuesday.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 4 Oct 2024

The forecast period looks most likely to be mostly unsettled, with frequent bouts of wind and rain associated with areas of low pressure. Frequent showers, especially over southern areas, at first, will probably (but not definitely, at this range) give way to more widespread rain and strong winds associated with the remnants of Hurricane Kirk later in the week. Scotland and Northern Ireland are more likely to quickly turn colder with showers, and the colder weather (perhaps some sleet/snow on Scottish mountains) will most likely gradually work its way south following the clearance of ex-Kirk. A more settled interlude is then possible, but further spells of wind and rain, again with a focus across southern areas, are likely to arrive from the west towards the end of the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 3 Oct 2024

A continuation of low pressure systems tracking in from the Atlantic is the most likely scenario for the rest of October. This means wet and windy weather at times, especially across England and Wales, but with a suggestion that Scotland and Northern Ireland may be more likely to see longer breaks in the weather, and more in the way of drier spells. It is possible that these drier conditions could be seen more widely later in the month as higher pressure further north extends southwards for a time. This would also bring an increased chance of overnight fog and frost. Temperatures will tend to be close to average overall in the south, but probably below average in the north and northwest.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 3 Oct 2024