Weather and climate change

Headline:

Heavy rain over central, eastern and southern England today.

Today:

Fine and generally dry with sunny spells for Scotland, Northern Ireland and western Wales. Cloudier elsewhere, especially eastern, central and southern England where spells of rain, heavy at times. Breezy for much of England and Wales.

Tonight:

Evening rain over parts of England gradually clearing away, clear spells following. Elsewhere, many areas dry with clear spells and another chilly night in the north and west.

Saturday:

Dry with sunny spells for most areas and generally warmer than today. Cloudier across parts of Scotland where a few showers. Thunderstorms may move into southern UK during the evening.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Becoming increasingly unsettled from the south Sunday, with spells of rain, locally heavy and thundery, mainly for England. Less unsettled for Scotland and NI. Many areas more settled by Tuesday.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 18 Jun 2021

Unsettled conditions are likely to continue at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, and a risk of thunder and perhaps hail. Longer spells of rain are also possible in the north and west. Atlantic air then looks likely to spread across the country from the west through the week, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 17 Jun 2021

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 17 Jun 2021