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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Nov 2017 to Saturday 2 Dec 2017:

Thursday will probably be wet and windy for most, with heavy rain, gales and hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. On Friday and over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some drier, brighter, or perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally but cold at times. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December, though this could be interrupted by a few showers.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:

A few days of cold, drier and brighter weather is the most likely scenario at the beginning of December, although confidence is low at this stage and there could well be showers around too. Changes in the weather will tend to be rather slow but it looks as though the second and third weeks of December are more likely to include cloudy, wet and windy interludes with milder temperatures.

Updated: 01:35 on Sun 19 Nov 2017 GMT

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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