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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 27 Jul 2018 to Sunday 5 Aug 2018:

From Friday and through the following weekend a west/east split in the weather is expected, with cloudier, windier conditions in the west and northwest with some outbreaks of rain. In the east and southeast there'll still be some fine and sunny conditions, but with a risk of thundery showers moving north. Widely very warm or hot in the south and southeast, with warm and humid nights, whilst western areas may turn cooler. Through the rest of the period there'll be plenty of fine weather, but occasional rain in the west may spread to other parts at times, and there's an ongoing risk of thunderstorms, particularly across central and southeast England. Temperatures generally very warm away from the west, with hot or very hot conditions at times, especially in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Aug 2018 to Monday 20 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures remaining widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and possible very hot conditions at times, especially in the southeast.

Updated: 15:01 on Sun 22 Jul 2018 BST

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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