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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Sep 2018 to Tuesday 2 Oct 2018:

A wet and windy spell of weather is likely for many on Sunday, the rain probably becoming increasingly confined to Scotland later, with the risk of gales, perhaps severe gales at times in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be near average for most, but warm for parts of the southeast. Atlantic weather systems are then likely to continue to arrive from the west through the rest of the period bringing generally wetter conditions in the northwest, and drier conditions persisting for longest in the southeast. Strong winds are likely at times, particularly in the northwest with a low risk of gales. In between spells of rain there will be some pleasant sunshine and these more settled spells may become more dominant with time.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Oct 2018 to Wednesday 17 Oct 2018:

October will see periods of dry and fine weather at times, especially in the south and southeast where there may be some warm days. Occasional spells of more unsettled weather are likely, mainly in the northwest where there is a risk of gales and heavy rain at times. These conditions will perhaps occasionally extend across other areas too. Overall daytime temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average in the southeast with a cooler feel under cloud and rain in the northwest. However the lengthening nights means that there will be some cool overnight temperatures, with an accompanying risk of patchy morning fog in prone spots.

Updated: 15:02 on Tue 18 Sep 2018 BST

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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