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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:

It is likely to be mild on Sunday 28th, but it will be rather changeable with bright and showery weather interspersed with bands of cloud and longer spells of rain. The rain will probably be heaviest in northern and western parts where it will be windy too, and the driest weather will be in the south and east. It will stay changeable through the rest of January, but perhaps colder with an increased risk of snow in the north. Through the start of February, it is likely to turn mainly dry and perhaps a touch colder, particularly in the south, with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Winds are expected to ease overall with strong winds becoming mostly restricted to the north.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 21 Feb 2018:

Early February is likely to bring relatively settled conditions with a good deal of dry weather, relatively light winds and frost and fog expected to form overnight. However spells of wet and windy weather are still likely across the north. Into the middle of February the forecast is looking very uncertain. However, we are most likely to see short spells of wet and windy weather move across the UK, interspersed with colder, brighter and drier interludes. Throughout this period temperatures are expected to average out at close to normal but it will be colder at times during the periods of more settled weather

Updated: 02:01 on Wed 24 Jan 2018 GMT

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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