Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2008/9
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2008-9 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone. Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asma (01S) | 16-21 October | 55/45 knots | Asma only briefly attained tropical storm status and just one forecast was verified. |
| Bernard (03S) | 19-21 November | 40/35 knots | Bernard only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified. |
| Cinda (04S) | 17-21 December | 55/45 knots | Cinda was a relatively short-lived tropical storm. Track errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Dongo (06S) | 09-12 January | 55/50 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in large 48-hour errors. However, 24-hour errors were close to last season's average and the skill score against CLIPER was high. |
| Eric (08S) | 18-21 January | 35/40 knots | Eric was fairly short-lived, but the track parallel to the coast of Madagascar was well predicted and track errors were slightly below last season's average. |
| Fanele (09S) | 19-23 January | 100/100 knots | The model predicted the initial north-eastward movement well, although was a little slow to commence the acceleration south-eastwards across Madagascar. Track errors at 24 hours were above last season's average, but improved at longer lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
| Gael (13S) | 02-10 February | 105/95 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm, particularly at short lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high. In particular, the model did well in predicting that Gael would make a sharp southward turn prior to reaching Madagascar. |
| Hina (16S) | 21-24 February | 60/55 knots | Only a few forecasts were verified for this storm since it was short-lived. These forecasts were a little slow in the forward movement of the storm. |
| 19S | 09-10 March | 35/30 knots | 19S did not reach tropical storm status as measured by 10-minute average winds and only briefly as measured by 1-minute avereage winds. No forecasts were verified. |
| Izilda (24S) | 24-27 March | 65/50 knots | The abrupt turn of Izilda away from Madagascar was well predicted. Track forecast errors were near to last season's average. |
| Jade (26S) | 04-11 April | 65/60 knots | Track errors for this storm were below last season's average. The model did a good job at predicting the track parallel to the coast although was a little slow in accelerating it to the south-east later. |
South-West Indian observed tracks in 2008-9
South-West Indian tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anika (02S) | 18-21 November | 50/50 knots | Forecasts up to 36-hours lead time were verified for this storm. Track errors were near to last season's average. |
| Billy (05S) | 18-28 December | 105/95 knots | Track forecast errors for Billy were very low and skill scores against CLIPER were high. However, forecasts produced whilst the storm was over land tended to incorrectly merge the storm with another developing low over North-Western Australia at longer lead times. This resulted in some low detection percentages at longer lead times. |
| Charlotte (07P) | 10-12 January | 35/45 knots | Charlotte was briefly a tropical storm and just one 24-hour forecast was verified. The predicted track was a little fast and too far north. |
| Dominic (10S) | 25-27 January | 50/50 knots | Dominic was briefly a tropical storm and just one 12-hour forecast was verified. This forecast successfully predicted landfall. |
| Ellie (12P) | 31 January-01 February | 40/40 knots | The formation of Ellie was well predicted. Once it had formed it was short-lived with only one 12-hour forecast verified. |
| Freddy (14S) | 06-10 February | 55/50 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm and skill scores against CLIPER were very high. |
| Gabrielle (17S) | 02-04 March | 35/40 knots | Only one 24-hour forecast was verifiable for this storm. It's error was above last season's average |
| Hamish (18P) | 05-12 March | 130/115 knots | The model persistently and incorrectly turned Hamish towards the Australian coast due to an incorrect representation of the steering level. There was also a slow bias. Having said that, most forecasts did correctly predict the track parallel to the coast for at least part of the time and thus mean track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average at all lead times except T+144. Skill scores against CLIPER were also high. |
| Ilsa (22S) | 18-24 March | 110/90 knots | Ilsa was a fairly staright-running cyclone and track forecast errors were below last season's average and particularly good at longer lead times. The model showed skill over CLIPER. Early forecasts were a little slow, but later forecasts a little fast. |
| Jasper (23P) | 23-25 March | 45/55 knots | Jasper was only briefly a tropical storm. The rapid movement south-eastwards was not predicted well by the few forecasts which were verifiable. |
| Kirrily (27S) | 26-28 April | 40/35 knots | Kirrily was a short-lived storm and just one 12-hour forecast was verified. |
Australian tropical
cyclone names
Indonesian tropical
cyclone names
Papua New Guinea
tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hettie (11P) | 28-29 January | 35/35 knots | Hettie was only briefly a tropical storm and just one 12-hour forecast was verified. |
| Innis (15P) | 17-18 February | 45/40 knots | Innis was already undergoing extra-tropical transition at the time first warnings were issued. The model was a little slow in the predicted speed of movement to the south-west resulting in large track prediction errors. |
| Joni (20P) | 11-13 March | 55/55 knots | Forecasts out to 48 hours ahead were verified and had track errors below last season's average, showing good direction and speed of movement. |
| Ken (21P) | 17-19 March | 45/50 knots | Forecasts out to 48 hours ahead were verified and showed good prediction of the south-eastwards acceleration. Track forecast errors were very low. |
| Lin (25P) | 03-05 April | 50/60 knots | The southward movement of Lin was well predicted and track errors were below last season's average. |
Western
Australian observed tracks in 2008-9
Eastern
Australian & South Pacific observed tracks in 2008-9
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute
(JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
