Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2009-10
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2009-10 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone. Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anja (01S) | 14-18 November | 105/85 knots | There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts for this storm resulting in track errors above last season's average. |
| Bongani (02S) | 22-25 November | 45/40 knots | Bongani was only briefly a tropical storm and just one 12-hour forecast was verified. |
| Cleo (03S) | 07-14 December | 115/105 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or above last season's average. There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts. |
| David (05S) | 13-26 December | 55/55 knots | David was tracked as a tropical depression for a long time before reaching tropical storm status. Track forecast errors were near to last season's average and skill scores were high at longer lead times. |
| Edzani (07S) | 06-12 January | 135/115 knots | There was a strong right-of-track bias in forecasts for Edzani resulting in large track forecast errors and poor skill scores. |
| 11S | 28-30 January | 35/35 knots | 11S briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified. |
| Fami (13S) | 02-03 February | 40/40 knots | Fami only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified. |
| Gelane (16S) | 16-21 February | 125/110 knots | There was a slow and right-of-track bias for forecasts for this storm resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were also negative. |
| Hubert (18S) | 10-11 March | 35/55 knots | Hubert was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. |
| Imani (21S) | 22-26 March | 70/70 knots | Forecasts for this storm were poor. A west or south-westward track was predicted, but the storm moved southwards. |
| Joel (-) | 26-29 May | -/60 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average, but skill scores were negative. |
South-west Indian observed tracks in 2009-10
South-west Indian tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence (06S) | 13-23 December | 115/110 knots | Track errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but below at longer lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were good. After the initial landfall, predictions that the storm would turn back out to sea and restrengthen were very good. |
| Magda (08S) | 20-22 January | 60/60 knots | Magda was fairly short-lived, but the few forecasts verified had small track errors. |
| Neville (-) | 20-21 January | 30/35 knots | Neville only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified. |
| Olga (09P) | 23-30 January | 50/55 knots | Short period forecasts for the initial landfall of Olga had low errors. Olga then tracked overland as a tropical depression only briefly regaining tropical storm status in the south-west of the Gulf of Carpentaria, before returning east as a tropical depression. Consequently just a couple of longer lead time forecasts were verified, but errors were low. |
| Paul (22P) | 27-31 March | 60/55 knots | Track forecast errors were low and skill scores against CLIPER high for this storm |
| Robyn (23S) | 02-06 April | 60/65 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors a little above last season's average. |
| Sean (24S) | 22-25 April | 55/55 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average, although skill scores were positive. |
Australian tropical
cyclone names
Indonesian tropical
cyclone names
Papua
New Guinea tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mick (04P) | 12-15 December | 65/60 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts for this storm and thus track errors were relatively high. |
| Nisha (10P) | 27-30 January | 50/40 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average. |
| Oli (12P) | 31 January - 06 February | 115/100 knots | There was a strong slow and right-of-track bias for forecasts for this storm resulting in large track forecast errors. |
| Pat (14P) | 07-11 February | 90/75 knots | Longer range forecasts turned Pat towards the west too soon resulting in large track forecast errors. However, at short lead times errors were small. |
| Rene (15P) | 10-16 February | 100/90 knots | There was a slow and left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in large track forecast errors, particularly at long lead times. |
| Sarah (17P) | 21-28 February | 35/35 knots | Sarah was a tropical depression for much of its life before reaching tropical storm status for a day or so before dissipation. Track forecast errors during the tropical storm stage were near to or below last season's average. |
| Tomas (19P) | 11-17 March | 115/95 knots | Forecasts for Tomas had a strong westward and slow bias resulting in large track forecast errors. |
| Ului (20P) | 11-20 March | 140/115 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to the failure to predict well the southward then westward turn of the storm as it approached land. However, skill scores against CLIPER were high. |
Western
Australian observed tracks in 2009-10
Eastern
Australian and South Pacific observed tracks in 2009-10
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anita (90Q) | 08-13 March | -/45 knots | Anita was a rare South Atlantic storm. The track forecasts as the storm accelerated towards the south-east were very good. |
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute
(JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
| Tropical Depression | Less than 35 knots |
| Tropical Storm | 35-60 knots |
| Hurricane/Typhoon | 65-95 knots |
| Major Hurricane/Typhoon | 100 knots and above |
