Ex Bertha may still give an unsettled weekend

7 August 2014 - Tropical Storm Bertha has now weakened into an Atlantic storm and will track towards the UK during the next few days.

The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk. However, there is also the possibility that the storm could move across northern France as a weak feature and also a risk of a more intense system affecting the UK more widely.

Ex Bertha track outcomes Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday.   Most probable track Bertha Most likely storm track for ex Bertha on Sunday.

The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic will come steadily towards the UK during the next few days. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, so there are still some differences in the location and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UK from early on Sunday.

Chief Meteorologist, Eddy Carroll, said: "There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding this weekend's weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall and strong coastal winds, along with large waves.

"However, there is a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country, or spread heavy rain even further north. Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially in the south, and people should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings."

It is worth noting that parts of the UK will see some heavy rain on Friday, which is not part of Bertha. You can see more about this on the Met Office's severe weather warnings page.

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: "Heavy downpours, some slow-moving, bring a risk of localised surface water flooding to parts of the Midlands, the north-west and eastern areas of England on Friday.

"On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds brings a possible risk of flooding to the south-west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary while heavy rain may also lead to localised surface water flooding in parts of southern and central parts of England.   However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next 48 hours.

"The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities.  People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates."

We'll be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 7 August 2014