Ensemble perturbations

Monthly to decadal prediction

This area covers research into climate variability and predictability; development of operational ensemble-prediction systems, derived applications and products for monthly to decadal timescales. Our decadal prediction system is the first in the world and our long-range predictions are currently among the most skilful. The forecasts and applications have a variety of uses throughout the world.

In this video, Adam Scaife (Head of Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting) explains how the Met Office forecasts from months to years ahead.