Ensemble forecasts quantify uncertainties in weather prediction and estimate risks of particular weather events.
Two ensemble forecasting systems are used at the Met Office: the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems (MOGREPS) is used for short-range prediction, while the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is used for the medium to long-range outlook.
Key research aims
To develop ensemble prediction systems, improving the representation of uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the forecast models.
To continue to develop a range of probabilistic forecast products, particularly to improve forecasts of the risk of high-impact weather events.
To support customers in using uncertainty information to manage weather-related risks effectively.