A combination of high pressure and a southerly airflow will see temperatures rise for much of England and Wales in the first half of the week, with temperatures reaching in excess of 30°C for some on Monday and likely peaking towards the mid-30s in London on Tuesday.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Tom Crabtree said: “Warmth is the focus in the forecast in the first half of this week, with temperatures likely to peak on Tuesday around the mid-30s, but remaining above average in the second half of the week, particularly further to the southeast.

“The exception to the widely warm conditions will be northwest Scotland on Monday, where showers will be more frequent. Warmth will develop there from Tuesday with temperatures peaking in the mid to high 20s.”

Met Office heatwave criteria, where a specific threshold must be exceeded for three consecutive days, are likely to be reached by Wednesday for much of southern and central England.  

The UK Health Security Agency has issued Yellow and Amber Heat Health Alerts. These specifically apply for the health and social care sectors in England. 

In addition to high daytime temperatures, warm nights are also likely in southeastern parts of the UK early in the week, with even a chance of a tropical night in a few places, which is where temperatures do not drop below 20°C overnight.

Chances of some rain or thunder in the forecast?

With temperatures on the rise, there remains a chance of some thundery rain at times in the week, as Tom explained. “Outbreaks of rain, some of which could be thundery, are possible in southern and western areas for a time on Monday evening spreading north and east through the night, though this will be fairly hit-and-miss and for many the weather will be a dry and warm day.

“While there’s a fair degree of uncertainty at this range, the main signal for more frequent thundery showers arrives from the south late on Wednesday and into Thursday. The risk of showers spreads north and west on Thursday, potentially bringing some fairly wet weather to Scotland, northwest England and parts of Wales through the day.”

After that interlude of more unsettled weather the most likely scenario is for high pressure to influence the UK’s weather into next weekend, with predominantly dry conditions with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could however still be some isolated thunderstorms, most likely in the south.

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