Low pressure is dominating our weather this week, with multiple warnings in force and more unsettled weather to come. 

A new Yellow National Severe Weather Warning for rain have been issued for Friday into Saturday morning, covering much of England and Wales. Flooding is likely to bring travel and other impacts.

Remaining unsettled Wednesday and Thursday

Warnings for wind and rain remain in place today (Wednesday) for southern Wales and southwest England following heavy rain on Tuesday and overnight.

In southern Wales, there is a good chance of a further 15-25 mm of rain falling quite widely through the remainder of Wednesday and some exposed locations, most likely on south facing hills, could see 30-40 mm of rain. With widely wet antecedent conditions, there is an increased risk of flooding in some areas.

In southwest England, further pulses of persistent and/or heavy rain will remain for much of Wednesday as the associated weather system becomes slow moving.

There will be rain in Scotland and elsewhere today, with rain turning heavy in northern England overnight. Temperatures will stay mild in the south, but things begin to turn cooler in northern Scotland – hailing the start of cooler conditions that will reach all by the start of next week.

Rain in the north remains on Thursday across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and northern England, although it will ease through the day. Southern areas will see drier interludes and some brighter spells, before rain and wind returns to the south by the evening.

It will be windy in the north with a marked wind chill, cooler temperatures and widespread frost overnight in Scotland. The south, however, will stay mild, looking at overnight temperatures of 12–15°C.

Impacts likely on Friday

On Thursday night and into Friday, we start to see the development of the next system pushing up from the south. Outbreaks of rain will develop through Thursday evening and overnight, becoming prolonged and heavy throughout Friday, before slowly easing into Saturday morning.

A Yellow National Severe Weather Warning for rain has been issued for parts of England and Wales.

Met Office Deputy Chief Forcaster, Mike Silverstone said:

“Heavy rain will affect a large swathe of central and southern England and Wales on Friday into Saturday. This rain will become slow moving, and some areas could see up to a month’s worth of rain in 24 hours. Given this will be falling on already saturated ground after a wet November so far for some places, it is likely that this rainfall will cause impacts.

“The rain is expected to cause surface water and some river flooding impacts, as well as difficult travelling conditions.

“Some uncertainty exists in the areas of heaviest rainfall at present, but impacts appear more probable across southeast Wales, the Midlands and parts of southern England. Strong easterly winds will also accompany this rain, bringing an additional hazard.

“We will be watching the situation closely in the coming days, with escalation and updates to the warnings possible.”

Accumulations of 30-50 mm of rainfall is expected quite widely within the warning area, with some places seeing 60-80 mm, and potentially in excess of 100 mm over east-facing hills in southeast Wales.

Strong easterly winds will accompany the rain, with a few prone spots seeing gusts over 60 mph in parts of west and northwest Wales.

Flooding and travel disruption likely

Alun Attwood, Duty Tactical Manager for Natural Resources Wales, said: “The yellow rain warning in place from the early hours of Friday and into Saturday could lead to significant impacts across Wales. With rivers already swollen and the ground saturated, we expect to see flood alerts and warnings issued.

“We’re urging people to be vigilant and to make preparations for potential flooding now. You can check if you live in an area at risk of flooding on our website and sign up for our free flood warning service.

“We do not provide flood warnings for flooding from surface water, so it’s important for everyone to know their flood risk.

“If there is flooding, we want to make sure people are doing all they can to keep themselves safe. We want to remind people to keep away from swollen riverbanks and do not to drive or walk through flood waters as you don’t know what lies beneath.

“Keep an eye on weather forecasts and visit our website for latest information on the flood warnings, and find practical advice on what to do before, during and after a flood.”

Check your flood risk 

Could your property be at risk of flooding? Follow this three-point plan to check and be prepared:
1. Check if your property is at risk here. If you are at risk, take the next two steps to protect your property when you need to.
2. Prepare a flood plan 
3. Prepare an emergency flood kit

It's quick and easy to check if your property is at risk of flooding. Just put your postcode in this flood risk checker to find out your risk. 

A cooler weekend for all

By the weekend, the north of the UK will be firmly under the colder airmass, with overnight frosts, and while there will still be some showers around, it’ll generally be a much drier and brighter spell of weather here.

Further south, the weekend will start off largely cloudy and wet, and still mild in the far south, but gradually the rain will ease and eventually clear to the south, with the drier, colder conditions further north affecting all parts by the start of next week.   

Into next week, it will initially be noticeably colder everywhere, especially in the north and east, with a brisk northerly wind accentuating the colder feel.

Read: A largely wet and warm November so far

Can I see the Northern Lights tonight? Will auroras be visible in the UK?

Multiple coronal mass ejections have reached Earth overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday, with a further arrival forecast to arrive on Wednesday afternoon or evening, according to the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre.

As a result, Tuesday night saw some aurora visibility for those in Scotland, with further enhanced auroras likely on Wednesday night, though terrestrial weather will limit viewing potential for many.

Met Office Space Weather Manager Krista Hammond said: “Multiple coronal mass ejections have reached Earth in recent days, with another one likely to arrive later today.

“This event is likely to be of a similar magnitude to the one in May 2024, which brought auroras across much of England and Wales. However, on this occasion, the weather will hamper viewing potential for many, with thick cloud and rain for much of the country. The best visibility is likely to be in the north of Scotland on Wednesday night, though there is a chance of some breaks in the cloud at times in the southeast in the night.”

Space weather activity is currently forecast to decline by Thursday night, with reduced auroral enhancement.

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