Climate change and extreme weather events threats to African malaria control says new study

The paper distinguishes between ecological effects—such as temperature and rainfall changes affecting mosquito lifecycles—and disruptive impacts from intensified extreme weather events like floods and cyclones.

The Met Office’s Dr Matt Palmer is a co-author of the study. He said: “Using 25 years of data and advanced climate models, the research finds that, in isolation, ecological changes will have a minimal overall effect on malaria risk by 2050 at the continental scale, though substantial regional shifts are expected.” Notably, warming is likely to increase malaria risk in southern and highland regions, while reducing it in the Sahel where temperatures may become too high for mosquito survival.

Matt Palmer added: “More significantly, the study highlights that the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events—directly linked to climate change—will disrupt malaria control through damage to housing, vector control measures, and reduced access to treatment.”

This latest research predicts climate change could lead to more than 100 million additional malaria cases and 500,000 additional deaths in Africa by 2050, including substantial impacts on children.

Modelling suggests disruptions caused by extreme weather events could account for 79 per cent of additional malaria cases and 93 per cent of additional deaths expected across the continent.

Findings based off world-first modelling that analysed 25 years of data on climate, malaria burden, control interventions, socioeconomic indicators, and extreme weather patterns across Africa.

The majority of new cases will occur in areas already suitable for malaria, rather than in new regions. The findings underscore that, without robust adaptation and mitigation efforts, climate change will substantially exacerbate the malaria burden in Africa, particularly through its disruptive impacts on public health infrastructure and disease control measures.

Challenging prevailing assumptions

Lead author, Associate Professor Tasmin Symons – who is a member of the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), a research group based at The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University – said the findings challenge prevailing assumptions about how climate change threatens malaria control.

“Most previous studies have focused on how climate change affects mosquitoes and parasites in isolation,” Associate Professor Symons said.

“What we show here is that the greatest climate threat to malaria control in Africa comes from disruption, when extreme weather repeatedly damages the housing, health services, and interventions that suppress transmission.

“While changes in transmission ecology are real, they are comparatively small. When those changes are combined with repeated disruption to malaria control, the impacts become substantial, potentially resulting in more than 100 million additional cases and hundreds of thousands of additional deaths over the next 25 years.”

The paper—Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa—is led by Australia’s School of Population Health at Curtin University and The Kids Research Institute Australia, and features a range of international partner organisations, including the Met Office.