Seamless Global Modelling workshop

Registration now closed

From hours to centuries: Seamless Global Modelling workshop

Opportunities and challenges for global seamless weather and climate prediction/projection systems

Tuesday 3 - Friday 6 June 2025

Radisson Blu Hotel, Broad Quay, Bristol BS1 4BY, UK

Registration is now closed.

Aims of the workshop:

Review the seamless model development and evaluation approach to ensure a sustainable and relevant process for the future of the Momentum partnership by interacting with other seamless modelling centres outside of the partnership facing similar upcoming challenges.

Consolidate the current collaborative GC (Global Coupled modelling) activities of the science programme and also inspire us to develop new ideas and plans going forward. The workshop could result in a position paper.

What will the workshop be about:

This workshop is funded by the Momentum Partnership and will be inviting other modelling centres to discuss the future of global model development and evaluation. The workshop will tackle the challenges and opportunities for how global model development and evaluation processes may need to evolve to anticipate the challenges below:

Seamless development approach, benchmark and testing framework to meet increasingly challenging user requirements across all time and space scales

AI/ML models, how will they be integrated within the model development and evaluation process and how can they benefit from the seamless approach

Model development suited for ensemble systems

Agile science pull-through, addressing systematic errors with process-based understanding for model development

Km-scale challenge and requirement for higher resolutions and scale-aware parametrisations

Tuning strategy with increasing range of complexities and applications

Although the workshop is focused around Global modelling there will be topics that will also be relevant for Regional modelling, such as K-scale challenge or AI/ML models and evaluation.

Abstract Call: Closed

This workshop provides an opportunity for researchers and professionals to showcase their work and share their insights with a diverse audience.

If you have any query please email [email protected]

Workshop presentations:

Session 1a: Seamless development approach, testing framework and user requirements

Welcome and aims of the workshop, Foundation Science Associate Director - Katy Hill

ICON: Towards vertically integrated model configurations for numerical weather prediction, climate predictions and projections - Wolfgang Müller

Met Office and Momentum Partnership seamless global model development approach - Charline Marzin

Interoperable rather than seamless: Challenges and opportunities - Ian Harman

Long View of model development - Martin Willet

Hierarchical System Development: Increasing Marine Stratocumulus Cover to Reduce Ocean Heating in a Global Model - Ron McTaggart-Cowan

NOAA’s Unified Forecast System for Research and Operational Prediction Applications - Vijay Tallapragad

Challenges and opportunities for seamless model development for the 2030s - a climate modelling view - Richard Wood

Data to Decision-Making - Helen Roberts

Seamless system to forecast climate extremes on multi annual to seasonal timescales - Muhammad Adan Abid

Session1b: Seamless development approach, testing framework and user requirements

Unified Physics - Keith Williams

Experimental designs to enhance seamlessness across space and time - Malcom Roberts

Exploring source of high predictability of monthly-mean rainfall during Indian Summer Monsoon - Ankur Gupta

Error growth and predictability scales across models: a comparative analysis between middle and tropical latitudes - Richard Keane

Session 2a: AI/ML models and integration with seamless physical model development

ECMWF strategy - Andy Brown

The WeatherGenerator machine learning for Earth system model - Ilaria Luise

The Met Office ML Intercomparison Project - Helen Buttery

Integrating data-driven global models into our evaluation framework: A Bureau of Meteorology perspective - Debbie Hudson

A hybrid physical-ML NWP model? - Ian Boutle

Integration of AI in Global Model Development and Evaluation: Hybrid Modelling and WP-MIP - Ron McTaggart-Cowan

Machine Learning Emulation of Climate Change Projections for Southeast Asia - Chen Chen

Session 2b: AI/ML models and integration with seamless physical model development

An AI/ML approach to NWP products using remote sensing data - Amar Jyothi

Characterising the casual impact of aerosols on cloud liquid water path adjustments from observations using machine learning - Daniel Grosvenor

Session 3a: Agile science pull-through, systematic errors with process-based understanding

Hybrid ML-physical model developments - Cyril Morcrette

Detection of systematic errors in global aerosol model to explain limits in parametric uncertainty reduction - Léa Prévost

Understanding sea-ice biases in the seamless framework - Tim Graham

Systematic errors in global circulation models and machine-learning models for NWP - José M. Rodríguez

Extratropical cyclones through the ages - Duncan Ackerly

Session 4a: Km-scale challenge and scale-aware parametrisations

Lessons learnt from global high resolution modelling - Annelize van Niekerk

Fundamental Improvements to Pan-Tropical Moisture Distributions using km-scale models with Explicit Convection - James Bassford

K-Scale: Year-long global UM simulations for DYAMOND-3 at convection-permitting resolution - Richard W. Jones

GC's regional sister at km-scale: towards an RC configuration - Juan Castillo

The ParaChute Programme - Alison Stirling

Modifying CoMorph-A for kilometre-scale resolutions - Sally Lavender

Interaction of surface heterogeneity and mesoscale circulations with the boundary layer structures - Michael Baidu

Session 4b: Km-scale challenge and scale-aware parametrisations

How does the spatial scale of soil moisture variability affect MCS properties in West Africa? - John Marsham

High-resolution ACCESS regional nesting suite for research purposes - Chermelle Engel

Seamless simulation to prediction of delays to southern monsoons: From projections to early warnings - Neil Hart

Session 3b: Agile science pull-through, systematic errors with process-based understanding

Aerosol, clouds and climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean: Some highlights from New Zealand’s DeepSouth National Science Challenge - Catherine Hardacre

A new approach to quantifying aerosol-cloud radiative effect through process-based constraints on climate model parameters - Kunal Ghosh

Developing the next standard configuration for standalone JULES using a benchmarking system based on ModelEvaluation.org - Heather Rumbold

Towards a seamless cloud fraction scheme for Unified Physics - Paul Barrett

Posters

Session 1

Forecsting Across Scales at NIWA - Stuart Moore, Jorge Bornemann, Trevor Carey-Smith, Tristan Meyers, Neelesh Rampal, Nicolas Fauchereau, Stephen Stuart

Impact of covection schemes on forecasts of TC-Kirrily - Hongyan Zhu and Debra Hudson

Session 2

Post-processing improves accuracy of artificial intelligence weather forecasts - Belinda Trotta, Robert Johnson, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Debra Hudson, Esteban Abellan, James Canvin, Andrew Kelly, Daniel Mentiplay, Benjamin Owen, Jennifer Whelan

Session 3

Predicting ENSO events and their regional impacts beyond a year - Sur Sharmila, Oscar Alves, Harry Hendon, Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Matthew Wheeler, Wendy Sharples, Andrew Marshall

Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction System2-ReAnalysis (GODAPS2-RA) Project: Preliminary results - Seung-On Hwang, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Johan Lee

Can we tune parametrisations to reproduce relationships that control ENSO? - Mike Bell, Benni Buchenau, John Edwards

To what extent can Bjerknes Compensation explain a weak AMOC in GC5-LFRic? - Benni Buchenau, Mike Bell, John Edwards

Adding surface wave model coupling to GC5 - Nikesh Narayan

Equatorial Wave Activity in the tropical atmosphere represented in the WCDA-GloSea6 - Juwon Kim, Beomcheol Shin, Yukyung Hyun, Hee-Sook Ji, Sang-Min Lee, Johan Lee

Evalution of convective and turbulent scale processes using CSET and its role in seamless NWP - Jorge Bornemann, James Frost, Sylvia I Bohnenstengel, James Warner, David LA Flack, John Edwards, Huw Lewis, Arathy Menon, Mike Bush

Session 4

Towards making Comorph scale-aware - Samantha Smith, Alison Stirling, Michael Whitall, Sally Lavender, Adrian Lock and Rachel Stratton

cSINGV: A convective-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model for Singapore - R. Kumar, C. Sanchez, J. M. Castillo, J. G. Lee, P. Patel, N. Z. H. Alvin, S. Berthou, K. Furtado, H. Zhang, D. Barker

The Effects of Convection-permitting Downscaling on Sub-daily Precipitation Characteristics Over the Western Maritime Continent - Xin Rong Chua, Sandeep Sahany, Aurel Moise, Gill Martin, Muhammad Eeqmal Hassim, Gerald Lim, Chen Chen, Venkatraman Prasanna

Future changes in the characteristics of the dry-to-wet transition period in Southern Africa and South America using convection-permitting simulations - Marcia Zilli, Jerry Samuel, Neil Hart

Session 5

The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble: Design and evaluation of historical simulations - Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Grenville Lister, Rosalyn Hatcher, Dan Hodson, Bryan Lawrence, Len Shaffrey, Andrea Dittus, Jon Robson, Ben Harvey, Kevin Hodges, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Steve Woolnough, Andrew Turner, Simon Wilson, Jeff Cole, Sharar Ahmadi, Laura Baker, David Case, Steve George, Eliza Karlowska, Charlotte Lang, Annette Osprey, Robin Smith, Jake Aylmer, David Schröder, Niamh O’Callaghan, Weronika Osmolska, Scott Osprey, Yevgeny Aksenov, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew Coward, James Harle, Jenny Mecking, Stephanie Rynders, Bablu Sinha, Chris Wilson, Martin Andrews, Steven Hardiman, John Rostron, David Sexton, Hua Lu, Tony Phillips, Jonny Williams

Assessing operational upgrades to an ensemble prediction system - Warren Tennant