trade wind cumulus clouds over the western Atlantic

Fourth convective scale modelling workshop

This workshop will take place from 28-31 January 2020 in Boulder, Colorado.

Workshop aims

  1. To share and understand where we are with regional modelling across the UM Partnership
  2. To identify and document priorities for regional model development and how to take this forward 
  3. To understand next steps in terms of engaging the climate community and operational meteorologists
  4. To enhance collaboration opportunities between the UM Partnership and NCAR

Session information

Convection processes 

Convection-permitting models are now routinely run for many domains across the world, in both the tropics and mid-latitudes. Within the UM Partnership convection WG, various ongoing issues with rainfall simulation by these models have been identified. This session will include papers which outline current modelling capability and applications, investigate the underlying reasons for limited skill in rainfall prediction and outline ways forward for model development.

Sub-km modelling

The scope of this session will include all aspects of sub-km modelling  (roughly 500m-50m gridlength) including existing models and applications. Also within scope will be discussion of future developments and research into representation of particular phenomena/processes such as turbulence, convection, fog, urban processes etc.  

Operational meteorology / O2R

The focus of this session will be on sharing experience of using the UM in operational meteorology and testbed activities, especially HWT. We welcome presentations from scientists and operational meteorologists on observations of model performance related to deterministic models or ensembles. Presentations on the real-time model testing of models would be particularly appreciated in order to inform future testbeds activities across the partnership, and future O2R strategy related to regional models. This may include suggestions on common means of assessment, lessons from previous testbeds, post-event analysis techniques and approaches for collaboration. 

Evaluation and verification 

Model evaluation poses both challenges and opportunities for understanding and improving model behaviour. The evaluation process might range from fundamental research into understanding the structure, processes and interactions in the atmosphere to creating and applying new and innovative techniques to identify and measure these in model and observation data. This session invites talks from participants who want to discuss both the big-picture and details of the evaluation process and evaluation techniques. The aim of this session is to bring together diverse ideas from around the world to investigate where we can share successful ideas and technical tools, and ultimately build stronger collaborations.

Physical processes 

The representation of fog, cloud and rain processes in regional modelling is of fundamental importance for both NWP and climate, particularly at “convective” resolving scales. This session will include talks and discussion covering; fog and visibility,  microphysics (both cloud and aerosol), aerosol-cloud interaction , process and sensitivity studies investigating warm and/or mixed phase cloud and rain. 

Convective scale climate 

Multi-year climate simulations at kilometre-scales are now becoming available for a number of regions, showing significant benefits in the representation of sub-daily rainfall characteristics and extremes, which in turn impact future climate projections. This session will include talks covering challenges and progress in convective-scale climate modelling, including added value, future climate projections and recent developments in climate ensembles towards risk-based assessments. 

Ensembles and post-processing 

CS Ensembles are now becoming widely developed within the UM partnership and beyond, but there remains little theory on ensemble generation at high resolution and achieving appropriate spread remains a significant challenge. Affordable CS ensembles generate huge quantities of output data and yet typically under-sample the uncertainty, resulting in another significant challenge in post-processing the data to generate forecast products in a timely fashion.  This session will look at progress in addressing these challenges. The plenary workshop session will highlight key recent progress while two breakout sessions will address challenges of ensemble spread and post-processing respectively. 

Additional information

For those wanting to attend the convection breakout session, a document detailing some potential projects to improve the representation of convection in convective-scale models has been produced, here. This will act as the basis for discussion during Breakout. 

In addition to this, please click to access the convection working group aims and convection working group future avenues. 

Logistics

Please click here to access the local logistical information. 

Agenda

Please click here to access the finalised agenda.  

Remote joining

See Zoom Join URLs for remote participation below. When joining the workshop please ensure your microphone is muted to keep disruption to a minimum.