Modelling climate variability

Some physical processes that affect the climate system, such as El Niño and the global oceanic circulation, provide potential sources of climate predictability from a month to decades ahead.

Our work involves the study of these processes in order to improve their representation in our prediction models. This way we hope to improve forecast skill.

Key aims

  • To identify the principal sources of monthly to decadal predictability
  • To improve representations of key processes in numerical prediction models
  • To develop new methods for the prediction of monthly to decadal climate

Current research areas

  • Assessment of climate model performance on monthly to decadal timescales
  • Mechanisms of North Atlantic-European variability
  • Identifying sources of prediction skill
  • Troposphere-stratosphere interactions
  • Tropical-extratropical teleconnections
  • Analysis of key climate events affecting the UK and Europe
  • Historical climate variability in the observational era
  • Dynamical aspects of regional climate change