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Modelling climate variability

Observed ENSO index (Nino 3)

Our research into climate variability and predictability is aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office's monthly to decadal forecasts.

Some physical processes that affect the climate system, such as El Niño and the global oceanic circulation, provide potential sources of climate predictability from a month to decades ahead.

Our work involves the study of these processes in order to improve their representation in our prediction models. This way we hope to improve forecast skill.

Key aims

  • To identify the principal sources of monthly to decadal predictability

  • To improve representations of key processes in numerical prediction models

  • To develop new methods for the prediction of monthly to decadal climate

Current research areas

  • Assessment of climate model performance on monthly to decadal timescales.

  • Mechanisms of Atlantic variability.

  • Simulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its global impacts.

  • Troposphere-stratosphere interactions.

  • Assessment of forecast initialisation methodologies.

  • The role of land surface in monthly to decadal predictability.

  • Analysis of sub-surface ocean mechanisms.

  • Sahel and European summer climate.

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