An external view of the Met Office building at night.

Andrew Colman

Areas of Expertise

  • Statistical methods of seasonal forecasting and calibration
  • Optimal combination of statistical and multi model dynamical seasonal  forecasts
  • Seasonal Forecasts of tropical rainfall

Current Activities

Andrew works in the forecast verification and outreach team. His work includes optimising seasonal forecasts though calibration of dynamical forecasts and combining forecasts from different models. This work focuses on predictions of seasonal rainfall in the tropics, particularly over Africa.

Andrew provides training and support to Regional Climate Outlook Forums, helping to make best use of seasonal forecasts available to make a consensus forecast for the wet season in their region.

Regular forecasts are provided for locations of special interest where the impact of seasonal droughts and floods is high. This includes prediction of Sahel, Soudan and Guinea Coast rainfall, prediction of the East African rainfall and prediction of the North-east Brazil rainfall. In addition, statistical predictions of annual global temperature are produced every year.

Career Background

Since joining the Met Office in 1984, Andrew has always worked with long range forecasts and related data. Work has included developing and verifying statistical weather forecasts for 1 month ahead for the UK and Europe, analysis of modes of variability in world wide climate data, particularly sea surface temperatures, and developing and verifying regular forecasts for tropical regions.