Dr Doug Smith
Doug leads the decadal climate prediction research and development at the Met Office Hadley Centre.
Areas of expertise
Monthly to decadal climate prediction and variability;
Assimilation of observations for the initialisation of climate models;
Analysis of sub-surface ocean observations;
Assessment of forecast skill, including extremes of temperature and precipitation, and Atlantic hurricanes.
Decadal prediction aims to provide guidance for adaptation and mitigation strategies for the coming years to a couple of decades. On these timescales, both natural variability and anthropogenically forced changes must be taken into account. This is achieved using the Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction System: DePreSys. By starting from the observed state of the atmosphere and ocean DePreSys has the potential to predict natural internal variability in addition to the forced response to plausible changes in anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations, and projected changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol. Experimental decadal forecasts, and verification of previous forecasts, can be found on the Forecasts web page.
The IPCC included a focus on decadal predictions in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As input to this, the Met Office generated decadal prediction experiments following the CMIP5 protocol. Additional high resolution experiments using HiGEM were generated in collaboration with NERC.
Other activities have included:
building a seamless monthly to decadal prediction system based on Met Office climate prediction model: HadGEM3 family, including the investigation of different assimilation approaches within the EU COMBINE project;
coordinating an annual Multi-model decadal forecast exchange of decadal predictions.
Since joining the Met Office in 1997 Doug has developed the Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction System: DePreSys, leading the decadal prediction team since 2008. Before that, Doug worked on satellite remote sensing of sea ice and rainfall at University College London and the University of Bristol. Doug obtained a BSc in Mechanical Engineering, and a PhD in computational fluid dynamics from Imperial College London.
- member of CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel (2009-2014).
- member of CLIVAR Working Group on Decadal Predictability.
- Lloyds' science of risk prize 2010, overall winner for research showing skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency.
- co-chair of WCRP decadal climate prediction panel.