Jeff works on developing understanding and modelling of the key physical mechanisms in monthly to decadal prediction.
Areas of expertise
- Climate modes and their impacts
- Observed climate variability and change
- Ocean-atmosphere interaction
- Monthly to decadal prediction
Jeff leads a team of scientists to develop better monthly to decadal predictions through scientific understanding of the mechanisms of climate variability. This understanding comes from the published literature and our own original research. Current research topics include investigating the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation and the potential for making seasonal drought forecasts, amongst others.
Currently Jeff is working on understanding how the tropical atmosphere might influence the under-representation of predictable signals in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation known as the 'signal-to-noise paradox'. This is an extension of work which showed a role for Tropical Atlantic forcing in the very wet winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16.
Jeff has a personal interest in North Atlantic Ocean variability. Furthering understanding of the model mechanisms that lead to such variability on a range of timescales will help improve the model simulations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) - a major mode of variability in the climate system.
Jeff became leader of the Climate Variability Modelling team in 2009 after a number of years as a climate variability research scientist. Jeff has over 20 years' experience in atmospheric physics and climate science. His scientific contributions include studies of Atlantic multidecadal climate variability, influences of the stratosphere, solar cycle, volcanoes, the QBO and the tropics on the North Atlantic Oscillation, European summer variability, predictibility of ensemble prediction systems from sub-seasonal to decadal timescales, and global influences on extreme UK seasons.
Jeff is author of more than 50 articles published in high quality peer-reviewed journals.
Presented the WMO Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award in May 2006 for a 2005 Geophysical Research Letters paper on the AMO.