Ken Mylne

Areas of expertise

  • Operational high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction
  • Ensemble forecasting and applications
  • Severe and high-impact weather prediction
  • Weather impact modelling
  • Communication of uncertainty in forecasts
  • Weather-related risk management

Publications by Ken Mylne

Current activities

Ken leads the Verification, Impacts and Post-Processing section which is responsible for delivering systems for post-processing model output to produce automated forecasts of weather and its impact and for verification of models and forecasts. Ken's background has been in leading the development and application of The Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS), and his aim is to develop an integrated probabilistic forecast system for automated prediction of weather and its impact.

The Verification, Impacts and Post-Processing section is divided into six teams:

  • Gridded Post-Processing - delivers seamless forecasts from 1 hour to 2 weeks ahead in gridded datasets spanning the UK and the globe
  • Site-Specific Post-Processing - delivers automated calibrated weather forecasts for tens of thousands of locations across the UK and the World as the core basis of Met Office forecast services
  • Verification Diagnostics and Methods - develops tools and methods for assessing the quality of forecasts and diagnosing performance of forecast models and systems
  • Operational Verification - provides regularly updated verification of operational models and forecast services for customers
  • Weather Impacts - conducts research into the modeling of the impact of the weather on society and develops tools for forecasting weather impact

Career background

From 2012 to 2016 Ken was Chair of the Data Processing and Forecasting System section of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and also chaired the Steering Group of the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects to build capacity for prediction of hazardous weather in less-developed countries.

From 1999 to 2011 Ken managed the Met Office's ensemble forecasting team, which followed six years working as an operational forecaster in the Met Office's Operations Centre.

During this time he led the development of the short-range MOGREPS ensemble system, the applications of ensembles and their integration into the Met Office's core operational forecasting procedures. Key aspects of this work were the communication of uncertainty to users of weather forecasts, and how the uncertainty in the weather forecast translates into uncertainty in the impact of the weather. In 2012-13 he led the creation of a new team to conduct research and development in weather impact prediction before promotion to his current role in May 2013.

Before this, Ken joined the Met Office in 1984 with a degree in Physics from Oxford University. His first seven years were spent conducting experimental research on the dispersion of pollution in the turbulent boundary layer, pioneering measurements of the rapid fluctuations of pollutant concentration within a dispersing plume.

External recognition

  • In November 2016 Ken was presented with a Long Service Award by the Commission for Basic Systems of the Work Meteorological Organization.
  • Ken was awarded the L. G. Groves Memorial Award for Meteorology in 2007.