Dr Leon Hermanson
Leon works on understanding predictability from seasonal to decadal time scales.
Areas of expertise
- Mechanisms that give rise to predictability on seasonal to decadal time scales
- Drivers of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European windstorms
- Drivers of tropical cyclone landfall in the Pacific and Atlantic
- Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its impacts
Leon is interested in understanding the reasons why some winters produce many violent storms that impact Europe and other winters are relatively quiet. He is investigating this by trying to learn more about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO provides the background state upon which the windstorms develop. When the oscillation is in its positive phase, strong windstorms are more likely than when it is in its negative phase (though exceptions do occur).
As part of the Met Office Predictability Research Group (formerly the Decadal Prediction Group), Leon works on developing and running the Met Office Decadal Prediction System Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys. He also helps with the analysis and interpretation of the experimental forecasts made with Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and its impacts.
Leon also works alongside other researchers in the Met Office to understand and predict tropical cyclones on seasonal to decadal time scales. Of particular interest is understanding the predictability of teleconnections that influence landfall in the Pacific and Atlantic.
Leon joined the Predictability Research Group at the Met Office Hadley Centre in 2011. Previously, he worked at the University of Reading with Prof. Rowan Sutton, researching decadal prediction since 2006. He was seconded to the Met Office in 2009 to work on initialisation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys. Leon completed a PhD in Meteorology in 2006 at the University of Reading supervised by Sir Brian Hoskins.