Dr Ned Williams

Areas of expertise

• Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and prediction
• Atmospheric circulation patterns and drivers relevant to predictability
• Ocean-atmosphere interactions
• Assessment and verification of ensemble forecasts

Current Activities

Ned is part of the Predictability Research team. His work concerns drivers of predictability for decadal forecasts, particularly for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the most important mode of climate variability for Europe. In order to improve predictions, it is important to understand the relevant processes behind predictability as well as the capability of our forecast models in capturing them. He is currently working on understanding the role that the North Atlantic Ocean plays for predictable changes in the NAO, and to understand this further, the predictable drivers of variability for the North Atlantic Ocean itself.

He is also involved in the development of the DePreSys decadal forecast system and is currently running experiments to test the role of external forcings in recent decadal predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Career Background

Ned joined the Monthly-to-Decadal Variability and Prediction team at the Met Office in 2025. Prior to this, he completed a PhD at the University of Exeter focused on the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation for seasonal forecast capability at mid-latitudes, graduating in 2024. He had previously obtained a First Class MPhys Physics degree at the University of Southampton, and he conducted postdoctoral research in decadal prediction at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany between his PhD and starting at the Met Office.