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UKCP Case Study: Climate Change Impacts on Peak River Flows Authors: A.L. Kay 1 , A.C. Rudd 1 , M. Fry 1 , G. Nash 2 & S. Allen 3 1. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Wallingford) 2. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh) 3. Environment Agency, UK Year of Production: 2021 Target Audience

-35.625 o W, 3.75 o S-8.75 o S and is marked by the blue rectangle in Figure 1. Quintile category forecasts have been issued for this (or a very similar) region since 1987. Forecast probabilities for quintile categories of mean rainfall for SNEBR are shown in the table below. The near-normal and above

) on initiation. Can we perturb the soil moisture in a realistic way in some case(s) to investigate this? Analysis of climate runs inc. UKCP 2.2km ensemble, 2.2km over Europe and 4.5km over Africa. Event composites for different weather regimes. Analyse profiles of events and rainfall distributions

60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 37500 35000 32500 30000 27500 25000 22500 Hourly T+1 to T+126 Hourly T+1 to T+126 20000 17500 15000 12500 10000 7000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 evaporation_flux_at_surface Rate of loss of water from the surface expressed as a mass flux. kg m-2 s-1 None None Hourly T+1 to T

this signal has a particularly large spatial extent and a magnitude of >1.6 hPa s �1 in the ensemble mean by the 2080s/2090s. In north central Sahel both ensembles show smaller upward anomalies (approximately 0.8 hPa s �1 ) corresponding to the wet signal in Figure 1. These changes are amplified

, GIC, etc. (29ea.) Aviation Power SWx Operations – observation network GIC Monitor (x3) TEC & Scintillation Monitor (x5) Singapyung Sintaebaek Daejeon Gwangju Dongjeju SWx Operations – satellite tracking facilities ‣ACE Tracking Antenna � global tracking network for RTSW � 13-meter dish antenna (S

the period 1996-2009. References M. J. Best, M. Pryor, D. B. Clark, G. G. Rooney, R .L. H. Essery, C. B. Ménard, J. M. Edwards, M. A. Hendry, A. Porson, N. Gedney, L. M. Mercado, S. Sitch, E. Blyth, O. Boucher, P. M. Cox, C. S. B. Grimmond, and R. J. Harding. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Climatic Change (2013) 120:965–975 DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0831-3 LETTER Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) L. O. Mearns & S. Sain & L. R. Leung & M. S. Bukovsky & S. McGinnis & S. Biner & D. Caya & R. W. Arritt & W. Gutowski & E

Specific humidity (huss) 4 4 4 4 Temperature, maximum (tasmax) °C 4 4 4 4 Temperature, mean (tas) °C 4 4 4 4 hourly 4+ Temperature, minimum (tasmin) °C 4 4 4 4 Wind gust m/s 4 3-hourly Wind speed (sfcWind) m/s 4 4 4 3-hourly 4 Wind speed eastwards (uas) m/s 4 4 4 4 Wind speed northwards (vas) m/s 4 4

, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) S. Flavoni: Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) L. Hermanson: Met Office Hadley Centre N. Keenlyside: University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center