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st Century climate change will very likely weaken the AMOC, but a shutdown in the 21 st Century is very unlikely - though still plausible. • Understanding more about AMOC shutdown ‘tipping points’ could enable early warning, giving time to take action. • Recent advances in monitoring and modelling

it was printed. Revision History Date of this revision: 27 th May 2016 Date of Next revision: 1 st June 2017 Revision date 27 May 2016 First issue Summary of Changes Distribution This document has been distributed to Name Title Date of Issue Version Page 2 Product Description Inshore waters forecast four

dangerous impacts of climate change To include keynote speeches on policy and science and a panel discussion with Q&A Chair Dr Ajay Gambhir, Imperial College London Keynote speakers Prof Paul Monks, BEIS The Right Honourable Lord Stern of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni

of climate change To include keynote speeches on policy and science and a panel discussion with Q&A Chair Dr Ajay Gambhir, Imperial College London Keynote speakers Prof Paul Monks, BEIS The Right Honourable Lord Stern of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni Prof Alice Larkin

dangerous impacts of climate change To include keynote speeches on policy and science and a panel discussion with Q&A Chair Dr Ajay Gambhir, Imperial College London Keynote speakers Prof Paul Monks, BEIS The Right Honourable Lord Stern of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni

for the north soon clearing away, then a few showers developing in the Midlands late in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south-east reaching the high 20’s Celsius. The 16th was fine again, turning very warm in the south-east once more, but some showers developed over central and south-western

to bring 40 mm or more in 2 hours in some places. Impacts The worst affected places were St Blazey, St Austell, Mevagissey and Lostwithiel. More than 100 properties were flooded with significant damage to houses and businesses. Roads were closed (including both the A30 across Bodmin Moor and the A38

of less than 0.2 Wm -2 (allowing for the Earth’s geometry and reflectivity). There is no doubt that the declining phase of the 11-year cycle of total solar irradiance has contributed to a reduction in incoming energy over the first decade of the 21 st century, but still not enough to explain

but intense hail/thunderstorms over east Devon. Properties and roads in the Ottery St. Mary and Feniton areas were flooded, and the main road (A30) between Honiton and Exeter was closed. Synoptic situation at 0000 UTC on 30 October 2008 Rainfall values and return period information below for Ottery St. Mary

of annual indices have also been calculated and gridded. These were derived from daily temperature (T) or precipitation data using the following definitions: • Growing Season Length (GSL) = period (days) bounded by daily T_mean > 5 °C and < 5 °C (after 1 st July) for ≥ 6 days. • Heating Degree Days