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: ……………………………………climatic zone(s) Morning Afternoon Night Rainfall distribution Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Hazards Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Key to rainfall distribution symbols: rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%), rain likely to fall in many places (33% -67

: ……………………………………climatic zone(s) Morning Afternoon Night Rainfall distribution Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Hazards Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Key to rainfall distribution symbols: rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%), rain likely to fall in many places (33% -67

, we construct a data blending framework based on Generalised Additive Models (GAMs, e.g. Hastie & Tibshirani, 1990; Wood, 2017, 2020) to undertake extreme value analysis of RX1day JJAS block-maxima a extreme precipitation , modelled as a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution: Y s,t,m ∼ GEV(μ

Wales Midlands Hawarden Airport, Flintshire Pitsford, Northamptonshire 37.1 40.2 East Anglia Cambridge, NIAB 39.9 England SW Bude, Corwall 36.0 S Wales England SE & Central S Gogerddan, Ceredigion Heathrow and St James’s Park, London 35.8 40.2 19 July 2022 18 July 2022 19 July 2022 19 July 2022 18 July

of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni Prof Alice Larkin, Manchester Uni Prof Laura Diaz Anadon, Cambridge Uni Prof Jenny Nelson, Imperial College London Mr Jim Maltby, DSTL 14.35-15.00 Break 15.00-16.35 Theme 4 - Climate resilient development: minimising impacts and trade

Prof Paul Monks, BEIS The Right Honourable Lord Stern of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni Prof Alice Larkin, Manchester Uni Prof Laura Diaz Anadon, Cambridge Uni Prof Jenny Nelson, Imperial College London Mr Jim Maltby, DSTL 14.35-15.00 Break 15.00-16.35 Theme 4 - Climate

The Right Honourable Lord Stern of Brentford, LSE Panellists Prof Catherine Mitchell, Exeter Uni Prof Alice Larkin, Manchester Uni Prof Laura Diaz Anadon, Cambridge Uni Prof Jenny Nelson, Imperial College London Mr Jim Maltby, DSTL 14.35-15.00 Break 15.00-16.35 Theme 4 - Climate resilient development

for the north soon clearing away, then a few showers developing in the Midlands late in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south-east reaching the high 20’s Celsius. The 16th was fine again, turning very warm in the south-east once more, but some showers developed over central and south-western

of less than 0.2 Wm -2 (allowing for the Earth’s geometry and reflectivity). There is no doubt that the declining phase of the 11-year cycle of total solar irradiance has contributed to a reduction in incoming energy over the first decade of the 21 st century, but still not enough to explain

of annual indices have also been calculated and gridded. These were derived from daily temperature (T) or precipitation data using the following definitions: • Growing Season Length (GSL) = period (days) bounded by daily T_mean > 5 °C and < 5 °C (after 1 st July) for ≥ 6 days. • Heating Degree Days