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London, 9 over Bristol, and 9 over Manchester, which replicates the spatial distribution of the CET. The four ensembles are: all the Novembers occurring in the 1960s, all Decembers in the 1960s, all Novembers in the 2000s, and all Decembers in the 2000s. To ensure that the distribution

heat-wave on 13th in the Manchester area and on 15th across the southeast and parts of the north-east. The first named storm of the 2016/17 season was storm Angus in late November. This storm and the next low pressure system which rapidly followed each brought heavy rain to parts of the southwest