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in the present-day and occur on average once every 5 years. Under a high emissions scenario, the frequency of hot spells*** increases to 4 occurrences per year and become more widespread. * Compared to 1961-1990 period. **Results from UKCP 25km probabilistic projections and compared to 1961-1990 period

. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact behaviour of developing low pressure later in the week, but confidence is growing on a generally unsettled theme. Wednesday: A brief settled spell and a colder start As Tuesday’s weather front slips away to the south and east, a brief ridge of high

throughout the 21st century, expected to steadily increase the likelihood of extremely hot events. Such long-term warming is not seen in the NAT climate, suggesting it is of anthropogenic origin. Figure 1. Timeseries of the June temperature anomaly (relative to 1901-1930) in the reference region (5W-13E

experiment suggest an increase in temperature since the late 20th century that continues throughout the 21st century, expected to steadily increase the likelihood of extremely hot events. Such long-term warming is not seen in the NAT climate, suggesting it is of anthropogenic origin. Figure 1. Timeseries

circulated ex-Committee. Rob Woodward confirmed these were for: o The final budget for the financial year 2022/23, o The Future of Operational Meteorology (FoOM) Tools & Systems business case, o o The Next Generation Modelling Systems business case, and Business cases, once they had confirmed funding

was available on the treatment of support for the existing supercomputer and on the consistency of budget pay assumptions and civil service pay remit guidance. • James Partington (NED, BEIS representative) briefed the Board on the focus of activities at BEIS, particularly the work to complete

and for quite a long time. The window of opportunity is brief and closing in! FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom [email protected] www.metoffice.gov.uk So, what kind of hazards are usually associated with the Tropical Maritime airmass? See the cheat sheet below… FitzRoy Road, Exeter

generations of global, regional and local climate models. The products and services will therefore continue to be developed over the coming months and years, informed by further user input as well as developments in modelling capability. 2 Motion caused by the tendency of hotter, less dense fluid (liquid

of 38.5 °C recorded at Faversham, Kent, in August 2003. 2 Motion caused by the tendency of hotter, less dense fluid (liquid or gas) to rise, and cooler, more dense fluid to sink, under the influence of gravity. In the atmosphere, convection leads to vertical transfer of heat and moisture, driving

to be developed over the coming months and years, informed by further user input as well as developments in modelling capability. 2 Motion caused by the tendency of hotter, less dense fluid (liquid or gas) to rise, and cooler, more dense fluid to sink, under the influence of gravity. In the atmosphere