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., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A.A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., Colman, A., and Cusack, S, 2011: The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting, MWR, DOI: 10.1175/2011MWR3615.1. MWR, 139(6), pp. 1891-1910. Bowler, N.E., A. Arribas, S. Beare, K. Mylne and G. Shutts, 2009

., Maidens, A., Peterson, K., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A.A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., Colman, A., and Cusack, S, 2011: The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting, MWR, DOI: 10.1175/2011MWR3615.1. MWR, 139(6), pp. 1891-1910. Bowler, N.E

s−1) (red: ERA5; black CANARI LE; grey: individual LE members. The dotted lines indicate the axis of the stratospheric polar vortex. i.e. where !U peaks, while the dashed lines are the zero-wind line. The 20 m s −1 contours are thickened to highlight the stratospheric polar vortex

to 45.09˚E Long. 45.0˚E to 135.09˚E Long. 135.0˚E to 134.91˚W Long. 135.0˚W to 44.91˚W Southern Hemisphere Area E: Lat. 0.0 to 89.856˚S Long. 45.0˚W to 45.09˚E Area F: Lat. 0.0 to 89.856˚S Long. 45.0˚E to 135.09˚E Area G: Lat. 0.0 to 89.856˚S Long. 135.0˚E to 134.91˚W Area H: Lat. 0.0 to 89.856˚S

://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf Lowe JA, Howard TP, Pardaens A, Tinker J, Holt J, Wakelin S, Milne G, Leake J, Wolf J, Horsburgh K, Reeder T, Jenkins G, Ridley J, Dye S, Bradley S. 2009. UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. Met Office

North Pacific (east of 140 °W) L : North Atlantic A : Arabian sea B : Bay of Bengal S : South Indian Ocean (west of 135 °E) P : South Pacific Ocean (east of 135 °E) Q : South Atlantic NHC Miami and CPHC Hawaii also use the "ATCF" identifier for Eastern & Central North Pacific and Atlantic depressions

:10.1029/2012GL051607. Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Forster, P. M., Webb, M. J. (2012a) “Cloud adjustment and its role in CO2 radiative forcing and climate sensitivity: A review.” Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 619-635, doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9152-0. Bony, S., Dufresne, J.-L., LeTreut, H., Morcrette, J

4) � • Projections (2050s): Fig 5 to Fig 6 T: S�N, δT↑ for winter (~3.25̊ ) ; δT↓ for summer (~2.87 ̊ ) P: Winter, W�E δP↑ Up_GL(0.4mm)<Lw_GL (1.0mm); Summer: Lw_GL P↑ (~0.7mm), Up_GL P↑ (Q3-0.2mm), P↓ (Q0-0.3mm) Discussion, Conclusions and Future Directions � PRECIS performed well on the high

1989 with 1665.3 & NE 9.60, also 9.60 in 1990. mm. hours. England NW & Wales N Midlands East Anglia England SW & Wales S England SE & Central S 4th warmest in series with 9.50, warmest 1990 with 9.55. 4th warmest in series with 10.14, warmest 1990 with 10.22. 4th warmest in series with 10.79, warmest

Information Bathymetry of the AMM15 model domain. The red line defines the low-resolution AMM7 model domain. The yellow dotted box is the domain covered by the AMM15 products delivered on a regular grid to UKMCAS users. (Figure from Tonani et al. 2019) Filetype Variables(s) Description Averaging