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fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK annual mean temperature anomaly is higher than the threshold percentile then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the model data above this threshold and an exceedance probability found from

month. Why is the high pressure stuck? The key to this week’s weather lies in the position and persistence of a large area of high pressure, anchored over the UK. This “blocking high” has been responsible for the settled conditions, but also for trapping a layer of low cloud over much of the country

of lying snow; the showers began to die away from western areas with sunny spells developing here. The 28th started mostly clear and frosty, with isolated sleet and snow showers clipping North Sea coasts, then a more organised area of snow moved into the north-west, heading south-eastwards through the day

southern England, where there was 19 cm lying at Odiham (Hampshire) by evening and the temperature only reached -0.5 °C at Okehampton (Devon). Sleet, snow and hail showers, accompanied locally by thunder, affected the north-east with 16 cm of snow reported at Copley (County Durham). It was mainly

model experiments. We also calculate where the observations lie within the model spread for five statistical measures: standard deviation, gradient of the trendline, skew and kurtosis. This step checks whether the model captures the observations (i.e. that the observations lie close to the middle

climate. Temperatures over 30°C in early September seem a distant memory to the current cold snap, with a hard frost and snow currently lying on Dartmoor. "The succession of named storms experienced through the autumn illustrates the potential of our weather, strong winds and particularly heavy rain

category which observation fell into) • Point averages for days 1 & 2 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 3 & 4, suggesting forecasts perform better than reference • But CIs cross no-skill line so no statistically significant evidence that forecasts outperform reference in predicting max daily flare

with the latest forecast.” There will be strong easterly winds during this period which may lead to blizzard conditions and blowing and drifting of lying snow at times. Daytime temperatures will stay in low single figures for much of the country over coming days, with some places staying below

and Buxton, Derbyshire. While lying snow is of course not unusual in mid-winter, it nevertheless contributed to the ongoing weather-related impacts from storm Christoph. Author: Mike Kendon, Met Office National Climate Information Centre Last updated 24/01/2021

, with Scotland’s 6.3°C being its ninth warmest November since records began. Northern Ireland saw its third dullest November on record in terms of sunshine hours, with 33.9 hours, compared with the record low of just 30.3 hours seen in November 2007. Snow falling, and for some regions lying