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numerical techniques for ocean modelling beyond NEMO? A: This is unlikely to happen as part of ExCALIBUR as NEMO lies at the heart of the modelling system as it stands. If NEMO proved to be completely unfit for purpose after WP1 activity 2 then there could be an element

-27 cm were measured in various locations. Photograph taken in Sutton, Surrey (reproduced by permission of Roger White). Previous snowfall The last time widespread snowfalls affected the UK was in February 1991. From the 8th to the 14th, there was over 20 cm of lying snow over the eastern half

(Table 1). It should first be highlighted that the observed ACE index in a given year is, by forecast definition, expected to lie within the 70% prediction interval approximately 7 out of 10 times. Thus in some years the observed number will lie outside of this range. However, in 2013, the observed ACE

Kingdom lies in the latitude of predominantly westerly winds where depressions and fronts move bands of cloud and rain eastwards or north-eastwards across the North Atlantic. Between the depressions there are often small mobile anticyclones bringing welcome fair weather. Climate of the British

much of the UK. Dr McCarthy adds: “For the first three days of March 2018 there were more than 100 weather observation stations recording at least 2cm of lying snow. Just over 50 of these stations had 10cm or more for those first three days. In some locations this snow persisted until 18 March when

. In total low-lying coastal areas received only around 50mm or less, however much of the high ground received 100 to 150mm, with some locations exceeding 150mm. The wettest areas were across the central Cumbrian fells, which received 200 to 300mm of rainfall and in a few locations 300 to 400mm. Upland

services and city infrastructure. Many of these communities, however, are in low-lying areas or next to rivers. This makes them extremely vulnerable to flooding, which can destroy homes and assets or even endanger life. Climate change means the threat is likely to increase, as some countries see

storm forecasts compared to reference forecast (frequency of occurrence over preceding 180 days) (RPSS: relative improvement of probability forecast over reference forecast in predicting category which observation fell into) • Point averages for day 1 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 2-4

anomaly is then added to the HadISST dataset 1989-2002 climatology to give a prediction for September 2010 of 5.5 million square kilometres. Despite the known model deficiencies, it is encouraging that this estimate lies in the range of the June Outlook report projections. Figure 2: GloSea4 forecast

, an advantage that is not readily available from statistical methods. To generate the ensemble, the starting conditions for the forecast are varied slightly to make 41 individual predictions (known as ensemble members). The forecast probability that the number of storms will lie in predefined ranges