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the key drivers of precipitation extremes over Nepal, Section 2 reviews a selection of common precipitation datasets and Section 3 compares of subset of 5 datasets from Section 2 with the Met Office seasonal forecast GloSea5. We conclude with some directions for future work in Section 4. 1.1 Drivers

As high pressure, currently centred over northern Britain, gradually migrates further north-eastwards, to become centred over Scandinavia, very cold air will spread from western Russia towards the UK.  By Monday it will turn very cold more widely and this will probably be the start of the coldest

A cold and windy Polar Maritime airmass, with its origins over northern Canada, will spread southwards across the UK in the next 24 hours, bringing a real taste of winter to the whole of the UK from tomorrow (Thursday).

at times over the next few days, but the situation over the southern half of England is more complicated. “Southern counties of England and Wales can expect a cold and wet day with some heavy rain on Thursday, but there’s an increasing chance this will turn to sleet or snow, especially over hills

For over 50 years, the UK, via the Met Office, have contributed into the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Voluntary Co-operation Programme (VCP). As part of this we work in partnership with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of developing countries, to help

, in particular over western Scotland, where totals could exceed 30-50 mm in 6-9 hours, increasing the risk of localised flooding. Forecasts and warnings will be updated as the situation becomes more clear, therefore it is important to keep an eye forecast for your area over the coming days.” Met Office warnings

The NAO and UK climate variability The relationship between the NAO and seasonal climate in the UK is illustrated by the diagrams below, with seasonal average temperatures and rainfall amount for the UK as a whole plotted against NAO indices for winter, and then for summer (SNAO indices), over

) on 30 June 1976, and at Shaw's Bridge, Belfast (Co. Antrim) on 12 July 1983. Hot spells, with consecutive maximum temperatures over 30 °C During the long hot summer of 1976, temperatures exceeded 32 °C (90 °F), somewhere in the UK, on 15 consecutive days starting on 23 June. In 2003, 32 °C

range. The SSWs are identified based on the methodology of Charlton and Polvani (2007). In total, 49 SSWs in ERA5 (1959-2023) while 2329 SSWs in LE. b) and c) Composite evolution of SSW signal in the NAM for the 60 days before and after the SSW starting date (lag = 0) and over the height range of 1

more unsettled with wet and windy conditions between Christmas and New Year, no named storms are expected at this stage and there are currently no warnings for wind. Obviously we’ll keep you updated with the latest details over the next few days. With transport networks expected to be very busy

humidity, the amount of water vapour in the air, has increased – this is consistent with theoretical expectation for a warming world – the air has warmed so it can and does hold more water vapour. “However, at the same time, the air over land has become less saturated – the relative humidity