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during the 21st century in the region of Singapore, 12(3), 613–632. https://doi.org/10.5194/os- 12-613-2016 Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave., J.M. Gregory., S. Jevrejeva., A. Levermann., et al. (2013). Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment

for sunshine hours in the month, with the UK as a whole seeing 52% more sunshine hours than the long term average. For Scotland, this represents the second year running that April’s sunshine hours have broken the existing record, with 2021’s figure of 216.6 topping 2020’s 204.6 to top the standings

scale, calculated every 3 hours through simulation. Red shading = suppressed spatial variability in sensitivity expt at given scale Impact of surface scales on MCS populations [email protected] Track full MCS lifecycles with simpleTrack algorithm (BT + rain) LO~ -22% L+S~ -15% ~7% Cold pools Peak

aligned with Government and in particular FCDO priorities. • The Board approved the business case to continue funding for the Weather and Climate Science for Service Programme (WCSSP). The programme had been running successfully in Brazil, China, India, S-E Asia and S Africa since 2014, primarily

Direction ‘N’,‘NNE’,‘NE’,’ENE’, ‘E’,‘ESE’, ‘SE’,‘SSE’, ‘S’, ‘SSW’,‘SW’, ‘WSW’,‘W’, ‘WNW’,‘NW’ or ‘NW’ 14. Wind Speed Integer – mph -99 15. Screen Temperature Integer – Degrees celsius -99 16. Weather Code – see decode -99 17. Visibility 2 character code – see decode -99 18. Mean Sea Level Pressure Integer

of how marine probabilistic forecast data can be used and communicated effectively in providing marine probabilistic warning services for various user applications. • Warning for coastal hazard product/service(s) in development (e.g. rip current forecasting). • Workshop/visit(s) to SAWS to train

(%) Weather Type Visibility (m) Pressure (hPa) Pressure Tendency (Pa/s) Hourly observation reports as recorded in real time by the Met Office UK Monitoring System. It should be noted that sites will only report parameters based on the instrumentation installed at each site and we only make available

30.228 (approximately 25 km 3 25 km), with a vertical resolution of 19 atmospheric levels using a hybrid coordinate system (a linear combination of a terrain-following s coordinate and an atmospheric pressure–based coordinate). Using a single GCM projection to drive RCMs can provide us with some

Centre, Exeter, UK PART 1. FORECAST Summary There are elevated probabilities for below average rainfall for the forthcoming October- December season. 1.1 Whole Region Statistical and dynamical forecasts of October-November-December (OND) rainfall for the East Africa region, defined as 5 o N-15 o S, 30

-15 o S, 30 o E to Indian Ocean Coast, are presented in Figure 1.1. The statistical forecast is produced by discriminant analysis using indices of worldwide Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as predictors. The dynamical forecast is produced using the Met Office GloSea5 dynamical seasonal prediction