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evaporating back to the atmosphere where it can form as clouds and re-fall as rain again. In fact, the behaviour of trees and plants can control the amount of water being evaporated and therefore the amount of rain which can subsequently fall. The reason lies in the tiny openings on the leaves

numerical techniques for ocean modelling beyond NEMO? A: This is unlikely to happen as part of ExCALIBUR as NEMO lies at the heart of the modelling system as it stands. If NEMO proved to be completely unfit for purpose after WP1 activity 2 then there could be an element

-27 cm were measured in various locations. Photograph taken in Sutton, Surrey (reproduced by permission of Roger White). Previous snowfall The last time widespread snowfalls affected the UK was in February 1991. From the 8th to the 14th, there was over 20 cm of lying snow over the eastern half

be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. • We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. • The estimate for low

within the tail of the distribution), then the exceedance probability is the empirical fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK summer mean temperature anomaly can be treated as an extreme value, then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit

is the empirical fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK summer mean temperature anomaly can be treated as an extreme value, then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the model tail data and an exceedance probability is found from

, shows deposited snow as white, the same colour as the clouds which are also present in this picture. The lower image shows a composite that makes use of some different near-infrared channels where the solar radiation is absorbed strongly by the lying snow, producing a characteristic red colour

of Wight), while bands of rain and showers, some wintry in the north, and isolated thunderstorms crossed the country through the day, Copley (Durham) reporting 11 cm of lying snow. After a fine start to the 19th, with just a few isolated showers over the north-west, rain, sleet and snow spread quickly

. The 27th began very windy, with blustery showers, wintry at times with rain, sleet and snow, coalescing occasionally into longer spells of precipitation, Middleton Hillside (Derbyshire) recording 17 cm of lying snow; the showers began to die away from western areas with sunny spells developing here

of the UK. Dr McCarthy adds: “For the first three days of March 2018 there were more than 100 weather observation stations recording at least 2cm of lying snow. Just over 50 of these stations had 10cm or more for those first three days. In some locations this snow persisted until 18 March when