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evaporating back to the atmosphere where it can form as clouds and re-fall as rain again. In fact, the behaviour of trees and plants can control the amount of water being evaporated and therefore the amount of rain which can subsequently fall. The reason lies in the tiny openings on the leaves

within the tail of the distribution), then the exceedance probability is the empirical fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK summer mean temperature anomaly can be treated as an extreme value, then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit

, shows deposited snow as white, the same colour as the clouds which are also present in this picture. The lower image shows a composite that makes use of some different near-infrared channels where the solar radiation is absorbed strongly by the lying snow, producing a characteristic red colour

is the empirical fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK summer mean temperature anomaly can be treated as an extreme value, then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the model tail data and an exceedance probability is found from

be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. • We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. • The estimate for low

. The 27th began very windy, with blustery showers, wintry at times with rain, sleet and snow, coalescing occasionally into longer spells of precipitation, Middleton Hillside (Derbyshire) recording 17 cm of lying snow; the showers began to die away from western areas with sunny spells developing here

of Wight), while bands of rain and showers, some wintry in the north, and isolated thunderstorms crossed the country through the day, Copley (Durham) reporting 11 cm of lying snow. After a fine start to the 19th, with just a few isolated showers over the north-west, rain, sleet and snow spread quickly

storm forecasts compared to reference forecast (frequency of occurrence over preceding 180 days) (RPSS: relative improvement of probability forecast over reference forecast in predicting category which observation fell into) • Point averages for day 1 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 2-4

. Dr McCarthy adds: “For the first three days of March 2018 there were more than 100 weather observation stations recording at least 2cm of lying snow. Just over 50 of these stations had 10cm or more for those first three days. In some locations this snow persisted until 18 March when

, so it’s important for everyone to know their flood risk. “If there is flooding, we want to make sure people are doing all they can to keep themselves safe. We want to remind people to keep away from swollen riverbanks and do not to drive or walk through flood waters as you don’t know what lies