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spells. 3.3.4 By the end of the 21 st century, lying snow decreases by almost 100% over much of the UK, although smaller decreases are seen over mountainous regions in the north and west. 4. Marine Projections A new set of marine projections show that sea level around the UK will continue to rise

and circulation changes are expected to be the primary driver of increases in the occurrence of hot spells. 3.3.4 By the end of the 21st century, lying snow decreases by almost 100% over much of the UK, although smaller decreases are seen over mountainous regions in the north and west. 4. Marine

with the reduction in summer rainfall. Locally this could lead to an exacerbation of the severity of hot spells, although large-scale warming and circulation changes are expected to be the primary driver of increases in the occurrence of hot spells. 3.3.4 By the end of the 21st century, lying snow

eastwards on the 10th followed by a day of sunshine and wintry showers, some of the showers wintry even at low levels with 6 cm of lying snow at Middleton (Derbyshire). A ridge of high pressure brought a quieter day on the 11th but cloud and rain spread from the west late in the day, giving 48.8 mm at Shap

of uncertainty it is only a ‘snapshot’ of current scientific understanding and modelling capability. Areas where there is good model agreement is likely to suggest confidence in that projection, however models which lie outside of it should not be neglected without good reason. The data used to provide

effect was important except for in the summer months. Altitude and terrain shape variables were obviously very important for days of snow lying and falling, as well as for rainfall intensity and the greatest annual 5-day rainfall total. The independent variables used in the regression model for each

, Table 1). • The forecast probability of more than 25 storms is 5% (Fig. 2b, Table 1). Page 6 of 20 2a) 2b) Figure 2: a) Probability that the number of Atlantic sector tropical storms, in the July to November 2008 period, will lie within given ranges. Red = forecast probabilities for 2008; green

events Extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001) is used in climate research to derive probability distributions that describe the expected occurrence of rare events (e.g. IPCC, 2012). Such events lie in the far upper or lower tails of the full distribution of values for the relevant variable, for example

version risks being out of date and incomplete. The work will be published in due course and is relevant to multiple Met Office projects, including our CMIP6 contribution. We added the following text, to give a sense of where ECS values for GC3.03-PPE may lie with respect to the current IPCC

in Kerala lies almost submerged after heavy rainfall led to extensive flooding in 2018. Picture: Shutterstock Climate attribution science plays a part in the evidence base needed in this complex area, and here the Met Office’s Dr Fraser Lott – a Climate Monitoring and Attribution Scientist – explains