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provide a range of values (5 th to 95 th percentiles) as provided by IPCC AR5. There may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. • We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily

, an advantage that is not readily available from statistical methods. To generate the ensemble, the starting conditions for the forecast are varied slightly to make 41 individual predictions (known as ensemble members). The forecast probability that the number of storms will lie in predefined ranges

and is useful for assessing any systematic model bias. It can be seen that the observations largely lie within this ensemble spread, except perhaps for temperature in spring where there is some suggestion that UKCP Local projections are slightly too cool. There are also consistent trends across all

different types of weather. Lying snow can prevent staff entering or leaving a site, fog and low cloud can limit visibility and ice and flooding can prevent the use of both public and site roads. Equipment and infrastructure such as turbine blades or power lines can be damaged by ice, plus

produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution analysis of extreme heatwaves in the reference

al., 2013). The observed temperature trend is within the range of the ALL simulations (Fig. 2, top panel). Power spectra also indicate good consistency between the models and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which

and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with 2 the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution

duration 300 Ground frost 340 Pressure and humidity 85 Wind speed (1969-2000) 100 Snow lying (1971-2000) 460 Why are there no data before 1961 for many variables. To create gridded data sets, observations from an evenly distributed network of stations are needed in digital format. For many climate

) in the local electron density. L5 L1 and dynamics of such features using coronagraph images and we will also compile J-maps (Figure 5; see also Wang et al., 2000; Davies et al., 2009). As a starting point for the data base of Earth CONLUSIONS • Main advantages of L5 Space Weather mission lies in L5 remote

used or if it is AMIP or coupled configuration. • Intensity (I IN ): AMIP simulation within limits of ERA5 variability, improving error common in previous model generations. Coupled: larger spread, with a tendency to lie in the weaker side. Alternative behaviours: error in QUMP PPE members • PPEs