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(ubar DJF) Changes in standard deviation (1.5mT DJF) Changes in standard deviation (MSLP DJF) Comparison of change in mean bias (MSLP DJF mean) If we had more years by running an ensemble, how big should it be? Change in DJF zm u telecon to SPV (m/s per m/s) Conclusions from variance/teleconnection
2021 (0900UTC 18th to 0900UTC 21st). The table below lists rainfall totals at selected stations from storm Christoph. Station Rainfall total 18 to 20 January (mm) January 1981- 2010 long-term average (mm) % of average Derwent Bridge, County Durham 86.6 75.3 115 Worleston S Wks, Cheshire 61.2 54.2
., Wigley, T. M. L., Lanzante, J. R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P. J., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Klein, S. A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G. A., Sherwood, S. C. and Wentz, F. J.: Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatol., 28
. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.95 m/s Root Mean Square Error 2.60 2012
. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.95 m/s Root Mean Square Error 2.60 2012
operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.92 m/s Root Mean Square
operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.94 m/s Root Mean Square
of scientists at the Met Office to better understand these shifts in our climate. Can you present a 2050’s forecast with help from Met Office Presenter Annie? 50 minutes Materials required • YouTube access • • 2050 slides Climate Change slides 1 Future Forecast 2050 Activity Steps What is Climate Change? 01
operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.94 m/s Root Mean Square Error
operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.94 m/s Root Mean Square
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