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: the alternative category should occur at least once and up to half the time • BECMG: a transition period when the alternative category should occur at least once • PROB30/40: the alternative category is forecast with a probability of 30% / 40% at each METAR time • PROB30/40 TEMPO: the alternative

: the alternative category should occur at least once and up to half the time • BECMG: a transition period when the alternative category should occur at least once • PROB30/40: the alternative category is forecast with a probability of 30% / 40% at each METAR time • PROB30/40 TEMPO: the alternative

: the alternative category should occur at least once and up to half the time • BECMG: a transition period when the alternative category should occur at least once • PROB30/40: the alternative category is forecast with a probability of 30% / 40% at each METAR time • PROB30/40 TEMPO: the alternative

: the alternative category should occur at least once and up to half the time • BECMG: a transition period when the alternative category should occur at least once • PROB30/40: the alternative category is forecast with a probability of 30% / 40% at each METAR time • PROB30/40 TEMPO: the alternative

................................12 Climate change We’re causing it, so let’s tackle it...14 00.13 GMT: Just past midnight and local authority duty-officer Karen Johnson is roused from sleep by an important text. It’s the Flood Forecasting Centre in London confirming extreme rainfall in just two hours

-hourly maximum wind speed for all named systems whilst they are at least tropical storm strength (winds >39 mph). Units of ACE index are 10 4 knots 2 . See also http://www.cpc.noaa. gov/products/outlooks/background information.shtml. ECMWF The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts El Niño

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of La Niña persisting during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for a change to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023. La Niña will remain the most dominant driver of global weather patterns over the next few months at least, more especially for tropical

electronic data is available. The list of holdings is available to view here. If the records you wish to see are held in the Met Office archive collection at PRONI and there are no relevant electronic records you will need to contact PRONI and order the records you wish to see at least 5 days prior

under the low emission scenario RCP2.6. It incorporates 15 projections derived from the Met Office Hadley Centre model, HadGEM3-GC3.05 (PPE-15), and 13 others derived from climate models selected from the climate models that informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5 th Assessment