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Forecasting fact-busters Age range: 7-11 How can we make and communicate predictions about weather? www.metoffice.gov.uk | 2 © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office Icebreaker: Quiz! Now think about… • yWhat are these objects/images for? • yWhy is predicting the weather important? • yWhere do we see

(or what is the problem) the project is trying to address? • What are the main factors that influence the needs (or problem)? Are there specific causes? • Who and what needs to change and how can that be supported? • What are other actors doing to address the problem? • What is the project’s comparative

Privacy Notice for Prospective Workers at the Met Office Data protection laws require all employers to inform individuals applying for jobs or assignments with them about the specifics of their personal data handling practices, which the Met Office will do by issue of this Privacy Notice

) products. The UKCP Marine Projections are available at 11 km resolution. Please note, climate model data at higher spatial and/or temporal resolution adds more detail but does not necessarily provide greater confidence. For further details see our UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) guidance page

and climate consultancy Insights About us Who we are, what we do and organisational news. Who we are Who we are Our people Our values Our history Accuracy Innovation Impact How we are run How we are run The Met Office Board Our governance structure Public Weather Service Our Chief Executive

and climate consultancy Insights About us Who we are, what we do and organisational news. Who we are Who we are Our people Our values Our history Accuracy Innovation Impact How we are run How we are run The Met Office Board Our governance structure Public Weather Service Our Chief Executive

and climate consultancy Insights About us Who we are, what we do and organisational news. Who we are Who we are Our people Our values Our history Accuracy Innovation Impact How we are run How we are run The Met Office Board Our governance structure Public Weather Service Our Chief Executive

which can process information. This could be to perform a calculation or control another device such as the colour of a pixel on a screen. Our supercomputer can do 16,000 trillion calculations per second, that’s 2 million calculations for every person on the planet, every second! It has 460,000

manner to this increment (as it does to increments from ‘real’ physical processes), and update all other variables accordingly • Typically, “truth” would be, e.g. (re)analysis • Can easily replace the (re)analysis with output from an ML model • If the ML model is better than the physical model

them 5 Probabilistic data - this is challenging even for experienced users of weather data. There seems to be little option other than to train the user - something that is challenging in the context we work in. An area for more research on how this can be delivered and utilised perhaps. 6 How do